Most gentlemanly general manager?

I know this is about a month earlier than anybody wanted to read this post, but I've been itching to write it since Detroit got eliminated. Nothing helps me deal with a playoff loss more than just sitting down and really picking apart Detroit's options in the offseason. This offseason's going to be different in two respects. The makeup of the team could look a lot different, but unlike most years where that's because of outgoing free agents, this year it's because Detroit can't make any moves until they get word from about four or five players on whether or not they intend on playing another season. They need to know if there's even space available, and they need to know what kind of cap room they can play with. Secondly, unlike most teams who wait until July 1st to make a free agent splash, Detroit has already had theirs in a way, in the form of the news that Jiri Hudler is returning. That puts them significantly over the cap and it's only May.

They'll have to lose something, but it's really unclear what that'll be at this point. I like to break it down position by position and focus on the big picture, so let's take a look at what we're working with. Also, if you haven't seen it, check out the playoff postmortem post directly below this one.

GOALTENDING

UFA: None.
RFA: Daniel Larsson
Incoming: None.
Staying: Jimmy Howard, Chris Osgood (?) | Thomas McCollum, Jordan Pearce
NEED: Possibly one AHL goaltender, possibly one NHL backup.

Before I even say anything else, I'm not advocating getting rid of Chris Osgood. The one thought I had charting that out is this: what if Osgood retires? He's lost his starting spot, he's lost Mike Babcock's confidence and even took a shot or two at his decision-making. Osgood's season was a near disaster from start to finish. Much like last season, he started slowly, but Babcock didn't handle the situation the same way. Detroit was really falling fast in the standings and this team couldn't afford to start a goalie that wasn't guaranteed to bring his A-game, or even his B-game for that matter. Osgood started less and less and his confidence got lower and lower. It looks unlikely that he'll reclaim the starting position at any point next year, the last year on his contract, and his 38-year-old season, which is the age he's said at several times he'd like to retire at. Why stay? I've said otherwise at different points of the season, but I do believe he is a good mentor. Would he stay just to hang out with his buddies, mentor Jimmah, and play in 20 games? Tough to get in his head.

I wager that those chances are slim. I only wanted to bring it up to ask all of you if you think it's reasonable to even think we may be without a backup goaltender to start next season. This is really the first year in a couple where the goaltending picture isn't hazy. We have a clear starter, and someone who could be a very good backup if he were played more regularly and could get into a rhythm. But I believe a retirement would confirm a definite rift between Babcock and Osgood, which would be sad considering that Osgood was probably the biggest reason Detroit won the Cup in 2008.

Even so, it's too early to say that the Jimmy Howard show has begun. I've said it all season, and some still don't understand -- rookie goaltenders are fragile. You know what I'm going to say all next season? Sophomore goaltenders are even more fragile. The dreaded "sophomore slump" couldn't be more applicable to goaltenders. Look at last year's Calder winner, Columbus' Steve Mason, for evidence of that. Unlike with forwards though, it's not much of a mystery as to why. When you play a team enough times, they start to figure you out. I'm a Jimmy supporter and even I can tell you his rebound control still needs major work. He's also prone to bad angle goals and completely melting down once he lets in a bad angle goal. Once NHL teams find these subtleties, then we'll see what kind of goaltender we have. I think he's confident enough to get past it, but I do hope that Osgood is able to stay ready.

Looking at the AHL, the team's lone free agent is Daniel Larsson. Larsson nearly stole the starting spot away from Howard as an AHL rookie in 2008-09 with an all-star season, but was inconsistent in his second professional season. Larsson doesn't appear to have Ryno Syndrome, but like all Swedes, the temptation to abandon "paying your dues" in the AHL and play pro hockey in the SEL or even the KHL, for more money, is always there. When Larsson signed here -- coming over after winning the award for best goaltender in Sweden -- he said "if Erik Ersberg can play in the NHL, then so can I." Two years later, Ersberg barely saw the ice for Los Angeles this season, and Larsson only has a few pre-season games to his credit. Will he get frustrated and leave? AIK seems to think so, a club in Sweden who was promoted back to the SEL after playing a few seasons in SWE-2. Someone I spoke to said that AIK's fanbase is pretty rabid and that right now a ton of players are rumored to play there next year. He went on to say that Larsson has played for AIK's two biggest rivals, making his chances of landing there even more unlikely.

His return will hopefully lead to an NHL debut at some point so Detroit can decide whether he will be ready for the backup role if Osgood retires after next season. He might see less playing time, as late in the season 2008 1st round draft pick Thomas McCollum, started to get it together, but overall his first pro season was rocky. Neither he nor ECHL goaltender Jordan Pearce, proved they were ready to start in the AHL, and consequently, leave Detroit's post-Osgood backup spot in limbo if Larsson chooses to head back to Europe.

DEFENSE

UFA: Nicklas Lidstrom, Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda | Doug Janik
RFA: Derek Meech | Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, Sergei Kolosov
Incoming: Jakub Kindl (AHL), Brendan Smith (NCAA), Brian Lashoff (OHL)
Staying: Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericsson | Logan Pyett, Travis Ehrhardt, Sebastien Piche
NEED: Panic rooms, "Dougie Janiks," and to cut some dead weight.

Defense. Take a deep breath.

This position will be entirely dependent on Nick Lidstrom. Decisiongate '10 is already in full force, complete with paranoia that's sweeping the nation and people over-analyzing comments and minor stories. Today's "oh no!" story came when it was leaked that Lidstrom's 16-year-old son has been registered in a hockey school back in Sweden (this is typical for how Swedish prospects are groomed, they take classes but also spend a lot of time every day on the ice with their team). Nick says this is not a sign that they'll be in Sweden next year, but a necessary step to make sure his son has a place to play if they end up in Sweden next year, as there is a deadline for registration. Lidstrom expects that it'll take "a couple weeks" to make up his mind, and I say take all the time in the world.

If he comes back, it's at a paycut. That paycut alone will determine what Detroit can spend this offseason. He was supposed to take a paycut after his last contract, but only cut down from $7.6 million to $7.45 million, along with a promise from Ken Holland that he would remain the highest paid player on the team. This promise is what worries me -- is Nick Lidstrom a greedy guy? Was this necessary for him, or did Ken just offer it on his own to show his importance? You'd love to believe it's the latter, but who knows. I would be thrilled if they could get Lidstrom down to $4-5 million. That would comfortably fit Hudler and open up a spot for an additional impact free agent.

But if he retires? Panic room. You're left with Brian Rafalski, whose two giveaways in about a second and a half set up the game-winning goal in the decisive Game 5, and Niklas Kronwall, who was clearly never the same after returning from his knee-on-knee hit from the worthless Georges Laraque. He did not get involved in the offense often, when he did he wasn't producing, and I don't think he Kronwalled a single player in the playoffs. He just wasn't himself. Then you've got Brad Stuart, who I felt was phenomenal all season but his numbers don't show it, and Jonathan Ericsson, who was much better late in the season but still not quite taking advantage of all the tools he has.

In the picture for next season is Jakub Kindl. Kindl was selected 19th overall in 2005 and enjoyed a stellar OHL career. As the story goes, he nearly made the Red Wings out of camp as a 19-year-old, but ended up returning for his final year of junior. He'll be 23 next year, and he's still not an NHLer. He struggled defensively in his AHL career but has slowly made enough progress where I'm comfortable with him on the blueline. He should be able to step right in on the powerplay, but will probably be in and out of the lineup until he's fully acclimated to the NHL.

It'll also be interesting to see where Brendan Smith fits in. Formerly a forward, Smith is currently one of the most offensively gifted defensemen not in the NHL and enjoyed a breakout junior season that has many wondering if he can jump right to the NHL. The consensus seems to be yes, at least among people who have no idea how crowded Detroit's blueline is for next season. Defense is also the knock on Smith, so it seems very unlikely he makes the jump, especially at the expense of Kindl. At the very least, it will be interesting to see how quickly he can close the gap in training camp, potentially earning himself some time if injuries strike.

Lidstrom and Kindl give Detroit a top six. That does leave three "regulars" from this season in limbo. Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda, and Derek Meech. Lilja is a great guy to have around the locker room and definitely isn't done playing, given his semi-recent return from an extended absence. His $1.2 million cap hit this season makes him an expensive spare part. If he doesn't take a slim cut, he might need to find himself a new team. I feel that Lebda will choose to leave, most likely to a cellar-dwelling team who could use his speed and proficient puck-moving ability, possibly baiting him in with the chance to get some powerplay time. Meech is in the same boat (Mebdeech, always), but has the disadvantage (to his interests) of being a restricted free agent, meaning if Detroit sends him a qualifying offer, they'll retain his rights and be able to decide what to do with him from there.

I don't like the idea of having half of Mebdeech as our #7 defenseman, and I hate the idea of keeping both, since Detroit has carried eight defenseman for a few seasons now. Both have been around for a few seasons, neither has proven they belong on Detroit's blueline. I do really like Lilja given that he is roughtly 75% more mistake-free since ruining my summer in 2007. Ideally, he takes $800,000, but realistically, he deserves a full-time NHL job. Maybe Kindl has a bad camp and starts as the #7, working his way in when Kronwall inevitably gets hurt. Lilja or a free agent, I say. UPDATE: While writing this, Khan conveniently posted an article where he asserts Meech will likely be brought back. I never know if Khan actually asks people these things or just throws in his opinions

A quick glance at the AHL shows that Smith will likely be joining Logan Pyett, the only returning regular. Travis Ehrhardt did not play too much as a rookie pro but showed signs he's ready for a full-time job. Sebastien Piche was also a rookie, playing in only nine games before spending the rest of the season in the ECHL, where he found his offensive touch. Seems like a scary idea for Grand Rapids to carry four defensemen that didn't play in the AHL full-time next year, adding Smith and Brian Lashoff, who's looked great for to straight seasons in tryouts following his OHL season, to that mix. They'll likely lose both Doug Janik and Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, who is restricted but told a Norwegian paper that Detroit already told him they won't be bringing him back, and also received an offer from MODO in Sweden. I was under the impression that Detroit would receive a conditional draft pick if Tollefsen did not re-sign in Detroit, but I can't find anything to confirm that. Sergei Kolosov is the other free agent. He'll be 25 next season, but has always been a long-term project. I think Detroit should bring him back, but the KHL will certainly be seeking him out as well.

Overall, Grand Rapids will need some Doug Janik-type defensemen who will be able to clear waivers for a potential NHL call-up, but also play good hockey in Grand Rapids. I'm in complete favor of bringing Janik back, but the nature of the journeyman AHLer is to live off one-way deals, and Detroit hasn't brought back too many of them in the past few seasons. A guy like Janik, having had a great year in the AHL, might look to sign with a weaker NHL team now to find a full-time NHL job.

OFFENSE

UFA: Tomas Holmstrom, Todd Bertuzzi, Jason Williams, Kirk Maltby, Brad May | Jeremy Williams, Riley Armstrong, Jamie Tardif, Ryan Oulahen
RFA: Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller, Justin Abdelkader | Mattias Ritola, Evan McGrath, Johan Ryno
Incoming: Jiri Hudler (KHL), Willie Coetzee (WHL), Brent Raedeke (WHL), Joakim Andersson (SEL)
Staying: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Dan Cleary, Kris Draper | Jan Mursak, Cory Emmerton, Tomas Tatar, Francis Pare, Jordan Owens, Dick Axelsson
NEED: Cap space, roster space, and to make hard decisions

As it stands, Detroit could pretty much go into the season as is and have a pretty good offense, speaking in pure offensive power. The fact that over 2/3 of their bottom six is headed towards free agency is a little worrisome.

To me, the priority here is retirement. I actually wondered in 2008 when Tomas Holmstrom revealed that he battled through the postseason with three or four pretty bad injuries, how long a player who plays his game can last? He was pretty healthy this season, but who knows what he has that liners. He'll be 38 next season. I think he's still effective, and he's given no inclination that he's even thinking about it, but I wouldn't rule out retirement completely. Kirk Maltby could be on the outs as well. He's said that he's preparing this offseason as if he's playing next season, but as you'll see shortly, he'll be the easiest to get rid of. Detroit's a loyal team so if he truly wants to come back there will be no stopping him, but hopefully Holland can at least give him the Chelios treatment and say "look, it just can't be done." I like Kirk as a person, but he went out of the lineup in March and I feel like I haven't seen him in over a year -- he just doesn't have much to offer anymore. And while I think he'll be staying, Kris Draper is Maltby's BFF, so he could be on watch as well.

The only reason that Todd Bertuzzi got a second chance in Detroit was because they desperately had to scrape the bottom of the free agency barrel when Jiri Hudler bolted late in the offseason. Now, it's Hudler's return that might cost Bertuzzi his job. I was very supportive of Bertuzzi all season long, but I'm not entirely sold on him coming back. Health was his concern coming in, and he played in every game for the Wings, but I think it's still a concern going forward. He's also getting up there in age and was had two pretty frustrating doubts this year. My concern is that he's looking for a multi-year deal to close out his career, and he'll quickly turn me against him if he gets a two or three year deal and scores 12 goals next season, given that Hudler's return takes a chunk of ice time away from him. That said, he carried this team on his wonky back briefly midseason, and was a force in the playoffs. Won't be disappointed if he comes back, but it'll be a resounding "meh" from me if he bolts for more money (again).

It's not his fault that he got hurt, nor will it be his fault when Jason Williams definitely does not get a contract this summer. If Brad May retires, Detroit needs to get that soft, velvety voice into the FSN studios. Next.

The reason Lidstrom needs to take a paycut is because of Detroit's restricted free agents. While none will get very far demanding the big bucks, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, and Patrick Eaves all deserve decent raises. I don't really know how much, probably all shorter team deals in the $1-1.5 million range if it's a multi-year deal. Every year that Ken Holland can get them to sign for in that range over two years will make me love him even more, because they're worth every penny. I'm 85% sure that Abdelkader has to clear waivers now because he's technically got three professional seasons (even though his first was only two games, after his collegiate season). If he is eligible to to play in the AHL, I worry about him developing bad habits there. I don't think he's a bonafide NHLer yet, but he just looks so out of place in the AHL that I think it's best he just learns as he goes in the NHL.

I left Drew Miller out because I'm still really on the fence. If they bring back Bertuzzi and the other three RFAs, that's already 12 forwards. They're more likely to carry eight defensemen than 14 forwards, and Mattias Ritola is also out of options for going to the AHL. Here's the thing: Ritola's definitely been in the long-term picture longer than Miller, who was a waiver pickup after severe injury problems (also perhaps a sign that Detroit didn't have faith in a guy like Ritola, at that point). Miller scored a few big goals and doesn't cheat you on effort, but just doesn't have much more upside than a 4th liner in my book -- also don't think I noticed him once against San Jose. Ritola works just as hard and has more offensive skill, but at this point, Miller is the better fit as a 4th liner. I'm thinking long-term though, and I'd really hate to lose Ritola after all the progress he's made since turning pro. I'll take him, but I won't be upset if they keep Miller. I will be upset if they keep Maltby over either.

Depth is plentiful. Grand Rapids loses Jeremy Williams, who is a dangerous enough offensive threat that, like Janik, I'll miss if they don't bring him back, Riley Armstrong (acquired at the deadline for Andy Delmore), captain Jamie Tardif, and former captain who missed this entire season with a hip injury Ryan Oulahen. Don't see a reason to bring back any of the final three. Restricted, Evan McGrath won't be qualified because Detroit ended up loaning him out of Grand Rapids, and Johan Ryno has twice turned down the AHL for Sweden, but could always beg his way back to the team now that his Swedish team has released him for next season. He's skilled, I'd take him, but he is a headache and at this point I don't think there's any chance.

Grand Rapids will be able to score goals, with Cory Emmerton, Jan Mursak, and Tomas Tatar each gaining a year of experience, looking like the next generation of Detroit's scorers. Francis Pare returns, as well as Jordan Owens, a new prospect acquired from the NY Rangers, who is more of a grinder. They'll be joined by Joakim Andersson, who could step into a big role having two full SEL seasons under his belt (the SEL is very similar skill-wise to the AHL, top end talent is a little bit better in the SEL though). Willie Coetzee and Brent Raedeke could both go back to juniors for their overage seasons, but are sound two-way performers who can chip in (moreso Coetzee, he has a great shot), both good bets to make the AHL next season. They have the option of bringing in two more prospects, Jesper Samuelsson or Stephen Johnston, both of whom have had disappointing seasons, and Detroit will lose rights to if they don't sign them by June. Otherwise, they'll bring in roughly three veteran, proven players to help the team's top lines. There's even a chance Dick Axelsson will come back, but it's sounding like he's shying way from the AHL again.

So, what do all those words I just wrote even mean? Courtesy of CapGeek, here's a very optimistic look at our cap picture, with my suggested lines, and the cap set at the predicted $57.7m. Players who are asterisked are my guessed salaries.

FORWARDS
* Tomas Holmstrom ($2.000m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Johan Franzen ($3.955m)
Jiri Hudler ($2.875m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)
* Todd Bertuzzi ($2.000m) /  Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / * Patrick Eaves ($1.000m)
Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($0.900m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($0.850m)
* Mattias Ritola ($0.550m) (Mursak, Emmerton, and Tatar for injury call-ups)
DEFENSEMEN
* Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m) / Brian Rafalski ($6.000m)
Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m) / Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)
Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m) / Brad Stuart ($3.750m) 
* Andreas Lilja ($0.800m) (Smith, Pyett, maybe Kolosov for injury call-ups)
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($0.717m) / Chris Osgood ($1.417m) (Larsson getting a game or three, if the standings permit)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $56.763m; CAP ROOM: $0.937m BONUSES: $0.000m

Lines-wise, Hudler's addition provides some interesting flexibility, but also a gap since there are eight "top-six" fowards. Eaves has a good shot and scored 20 as a rookie, so maybe he'll get a chance on a scoring line. Also, the 4th line had the problem late in the year of not having a natural center, but now has three natural centers.

This all leaves under $1 million to add likely an 8th defenseman, which could easily just be Meech since he can play a little forward. But those are low totals for all the RFAs, only a slight raise for Bertuzzi, and cuts for Holmstrom, Lidstrom, and Lilja, who all had strong seasons. Sometimes it just doesn't make any sense, but in my eyes, they'll need to take cuts to stay on board, but perhaps not all of them since there's actually some space left in this one.

That looks like a contending team to me. I'll outline possibly a few free agents when we get closer to July (so we know if anyone retired, and know who's going to be on the market for sure). So let's start this. I warned all of you that this is incredibly detailed, and yes, these are the kinds of things I do in my spare summer time. I'd like to get some discussion going, feel free to throw out your own scenarios too, I enjoy reading through them. Ready, set... go!

I wrote something similar to this yesterday and it blew up as I was trying to post it. So consider this try number two of two.

I essentially checked out of this series after Game 3. I still had hope, regularly praying to the hockey gods for any kind of miracle, but I knew the odds. Down 3-0 in a series, to a San Jose team that was actually performing to expectations, unlike every other time Detroit plays them, does not bode well. Still, I remained positive. They lose, that's fine, that's how the script says it's supposed to happen. San Jose had a lot more to lose, given their reputation of playoff excellence.

That's probably why that 7-1 game was so spectacular. That game, coupled with the Wings first period in Game 3 where they could have been up 4-1, if not for a 50/50 "kick in" and a lucky-but-still-great save on a penalty shot, definitely gave more people than me a reason to believe. To do that against, of all teams, San Jose, really meant a lot. And they played well in Game 5 too, which is why I was surprised I was still a little bummed when I watched the handshakes. They didn't deserve to go down in five, but I don't think they played well enough early in the series to win. So that was that, and Game 4 was merely a treat to remember in the offseason.

As usual, the Wings' exit is greeted by a plethora of articles asking if the Wings' dynasty is over. Spoiler alert: it's not. Media alert: you're an idiot for asking the same questions that have been asked since the early 2000s. And even more in the realm of predictability are the articles over Detroit being conspiracy-loving sore losers. I can't speak for everyone, but I can say this: Detroit lost, fair and square. San Jose is built to beat Detroit, in many ways. They play the same style, but they do it with bigger players who can match or better Detroit in speed. They haven't hit the point that Detroit did last season where the salary cap catches up to them -- right now, they're much deeper up front than Detroit. With the likes of Pavelski, Setoguchi, Marleau, and Nabokov heading too free agency, you've got to believe that they'll need to make some moves this summer.

The problem I had with the officiating was this: it took the excitement out of what could have been the most exciting series of the playoffs. Two rivals, the two best teams in the Western Conference over the past five seasons. I don't even need to look that up to know it's true. They both play a similar puck possession style with a lot of skill and speed -- that's a recipe for back-and-forth hockey. That flow was ruined by a constant parade to the penalty box. Phantom calls, penalty shots for no reason, illegitimate goaltender inference calls, and diving -- both ways, mind you -- just really led to more groaning and hair-pulling. Each team has a nice powerplay, but this series did not live up to it's billing, and it's because of the men in stripes. However, that didn't stop me from thinking that this video is hilarious (thanks to J/doozy104 for sending that in).

As promised, I'm pulling for the Sharks to win the Cup now. It's a very weird feeling to look at the playoff bracket and realize that San Jose, Chicago, or Vancouver will be playing for the Cup in June. And they'll win it, too, because the Eastern Conference sucks. San Jose and Vancouver, two perennial playoff disappointments. And Chicago, the team that didn't have any fans three years ago. Weird. The only team I'd like to see take it over San Jose would be Boston. That's the only team I can tolerate coming out of the East. The Sharks are definitely playing to win -- they deserve it.

The series was a snapshot of the entire season. Slightly disappointing, mixed in with a ton of bad breaks. Without a doubt, this season was the most exciting in recent memory. Detroit has made the playoffs every year that I've been alive, and especially since I started becoming a hardcore fan, they've achieved a level of regular season excellence that is virtually impossible to duplicate. This has led to the months of February and March usually meaning very little outside of bragging rights. This season, with Detroit sitting at 10th midseason, every game down the stretch was stressfully exciting. They worked their way up to 5th, and delivered a handful of extremely exciting games along the way. I hope that some of those moments -- the back-to-back buzzer beaters, Howard making 40-50 saves -- will be what defines this season when you look back on it.

And you know what it made me realize? That stuff sucks, I much prefer coasting through the end of the regular season. Luckily, I truly believe that, when healthy, this team can achieve that. Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, and Henrik Zetterberg are among the best in the league and they're all in their prime. Heck, I still don't believe that Nick Lidstrom is any worse than he was five years ago, should he return. Jimmy Howard, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Patrick Eaves, and Drew Miller all emerged this year to give us something to look forward to for next season. The core of this team isn't going anywhere, but cosmetic changes are guaranteed with Jiri Hudler coming back. Just pray to the hockey gods for better injury fortunes, and there's no way that Detroit and Chicago don't have an epic battle for the Central Division next season. I am thrilled to be a fan of this team, for the past and for the future.

A year ago at this time, my blog had very few followers. There was a handful, who I appreciate dearly, but things didn't really get going here until late in the playoffs and into the offseason. I don't know what the reason for that was, but I certainly appreciate it. It makes it a lot more rewarding to write here, and I've been given opportunities I never thought possible. So I have to thank all of you for making this a very fun year for me, even when the product on the ice wasn't what we all expected.

I chose to take a more positive outlook in life and hockey (hockey goes beyond life, you see) this season, and I'm happy that I've got a solid group of regulars here who can exhibit that same positivity. There is a lot to be optimistic about going forward, so I hope you'll keep that positivity despite the early-ish playoff exit. I encourage all of you to stick around this offseason and help me analyze, discuss, and dissect every move Detroit makes. I love hearing different ideas, especially when it's regarding offseason activity, so never be shy to chip in. And for all you lurkers -- get involved. I truly want you to. I plan on keeping this place as busy as I can this summer (I'm going to have a lot of free time), and I've already got Prospect Rankings and the traditionally ungodly long Offseason Gameplan in the works, along with a few more announcements planned for the not-so-distant future. Hopefully, you'll all still stick around to be a part of them.

In closing, JIMMY HOWARD FOR PRESIDENT OF SPACE. That is all.

Love,
Kyle

Here's what I've been thinking about: 3-0 leads vs. 3-1 leads. What's the difference? Why is one so much harder to come back from? Even before this game, this is what I was thinking about. Tell me, which team has momentum? Team X is up 2-1, and they win Game 4. They have the series lead, and then Team Z wins Game 5. Or in another scenario, Team X is up 3-0, and team Z wins Game 4. It seems like they have momentum going into Game 5. It just seems weird to me. I mean, it's perfectly rational -- one team has to win three games to win a series, and the other has to win four. It's just weird that it's happened so rarely. Especially when you think about the momentum involved in each of those scenarios.

Then you think about what a team goes through going back to their own rink having just been trounced 7-1. That is something I wasn't thinking about going into today's game. But it certainly makes me rethink things. In my last post, I basically all but admitted defeat. I said San Jose was much better than Detroit, and that they were outplaying Detroit in another area. That was a good way to justify a sweep. But also, it gives Detroit a reason to believe. (See what I did there? I said the title in the middle of the post. I hate when movies do that. I really liked the movie Doubt, but the last line of the movie was Meryl Streep saying "I have doubts!" and I was like "are you kidding me? Lame!" and then I got banned from the theatre.)

Anywho, I've got a couple reasons to be thrilled with this win. First, think about the last two games. I really do feel like San Jose was the better team through the first three games, but this series could look drastically different with a few different breaks. What if the officiating was bad in Detroit's favor in Game 2. What if it was even reasonable in Game 2? What if Nick Lidstrom's stick didn't break? What if Detroit was up 5-1 two minutes into the second period of Game 3? Like I said in the last post, Zetterberg's no goal was 50/50 and his penalty shot was a very lucky save -- easily could have been 5-1, early. All I'm saying is, despite what I said about San Jose being the better team, this could easily be 3-1 Detroit. Detroit could have won three games in a row. Obviously, games wouldn't have played out the same way, but Detroit didn't play poorly enough to deserve being down 3-1.

Also, this game wasn't just 7-1. It was 7-1 courtesy of six points by Johan Franzen and "four" by Todd Bertuzzi (how does he not get an assist on the goal that he and/or his broken stick touched on the way to the net?) If it was Datsyuk and Zetterberg, that would be cool -- but I wouldn't be as pumped. I've talked all playoffs how Franzen hasn't been up to snuff, and then he looks unbelievably unstoppable tonight. Bertuzzi has been playing pretty well, but as we all know, he's ridiculously streaky and a performance like this -- complete with solid defensive plays as well -- is only going to help going in this miraculous comeback attempt.

But here's the thing -- San Jose can afford to take a night off here. They're still up 3-1. And they're going back home and might be able to translate this embarrassing loss into a good performance at home. But, from a Detroit perspective, we did some damage today. We demolished Nabokov, we frustrated Thornton, we shut down Pavelski, and we got Boyle to score in his own net. All things that are good. I'm just saying, it's still a very far uphill battle. But let's not think of this anymore as Detroit coming back from 3-0. It's 3-1 now. One game at a time. Let's make it 3-2, and come back to Detroit and go from there. That's just how I feel.

Let's keep going from here. One game at a time. I'm not too worried about it. It's still a near impossible feat here, but I'm feeling much more confident than yesterday. If we lose, who cares? This game nearly made it worth it by itself -- proved to me that Detroit can hang with San Jose. But, it also proved that Detroit can handle San Jose, which they still have the chance to do over the next three games. Let's get it done.

I almost wrote about the last game. I started to, actually. Mostly because Terry Foster's article on Detroit fans is really, really stupid. Mind-numbingly stupid. Like, "how do you have a job in this profession when you're so out of touch?" stupid. But that's okay. I'm sure Foster does a fine job, but articles like these re-assure me that I'm probably not missing much. Everybody acknowledged that the worst calls of the night were on Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau. But the Heatley call only came because Detroit was desperately owed a make-up call.

Secondly, tons of non-Wings fans acknowledged that officiating was atrocious. Atrocious calls, both ways, are enough to ruin a game. Third, when is the last time Detroit fans have even blamed officiating? Every time we lose? Didn't see that at all in the Phoenix series, even over the regular season. There were a few games ruined by obvious bad calls and disallowed goals, but not penalty calls in a long, long time. Finally, why the shot at Michigan fans? I don't follow them as much as I do Detroit, but I do watch every game. Personally, I blamed their losses mostly on inexperience and not having the right personnel for the offense, but I guess I'm not as in touch with that fanbase so I'll leave that be.

But I digress. I was planning a whole post on that garbage. I'll just hope everyone else felt the way I did and go back to ignoring Foster. Good.

On to the Wings. I am... very apathetic right now. I'm usually furious when Detroit gets screwed like they did in Game 2 (gasp, sorry Terry), furious when they're on the brink of elimination, what have you. I was disappointed that they lost, but it didn't linger like it usually does. The team in the third period was not a team that deserves to win a game in overtime.

Here's my deal: I just don't think the Wings have played well enough to win this series. I think they've played well enough where they probably should have a game (Game 2 is my choice, again, if powerplays were a little more even). I'm reading a lot about how Detroit is clearly the better team in this series, and as biased as I am, I disagree. San Jose just looks better to me. They've had a dive here and there, but overall I really respect the game they've played.

4-3 games are hardly dominating. In fact, yesterday easily could have been a blowout. I won't say the no-goal was a terrible call, but it easily could have counted. I thought it was 50/50. Then the penalty shot -- which was a good break for Detroit -- was an excellent move by Zetterberg and absolute desperation robbery by Evgeni Nabokov. A little higher or lower and that's a goal. Easily could have been 5-1 Detroit early in the second. But wait, doesn't that contradict what I was saying earlier? Not quite. Detroit dominated the first, but San Jose came back and was clearly the better team in the final 40 minutes. Same case in the first two games, 5-on-3s or not.

They capitalized on their opportunities. They're dominant on the cycle. Joe Thornton isn't a complete joke. Nabokov has been pretty good. Joe Pavelski is putting together one of the best playoffs in recent memory. Offense is just clicking, period. Defense is not giving Detroit's stars any space. They don't really have elite shut down guys, but they're getting good minutes out of everyone. And, in my mind, they're outcoaching Detroit. The smartest move of the series: McLellan's comments about officiating in the first game. Babcock calls out a missed dive, McLellan compliments the officiating. Don't think for a second that didn't earn him some favor. It's clearly come into effect in the next two games.

One thing I don't want to see -- excuses. Officiating has been brutal, but it's not the reason they're behind. And fatigue? Don't buy it. I'll show you Saler's post, but he's far from the only one saying/thinking it, he just wrote it the most eloquently. Obviously no disrespect, but I find the whole thing ridiculous. These are professionals. They don't look tired to me. Tired teams don't tear through the regular season, post Olympics, the way this team did. Tired teams don't finish 5th despite about a dozen crucial injuries (which I don't think were the result of tiredness, but just freak bad karma). Tired teams don't have the jump that Detroit had last night. But sure, they do fall apart at the end of games -- but this is something Detroit's been doing for two full seasons now. It's problems that go further than fatigue. And it's just too easy to say that, when sometimes you just need to swallow your pride and admit that Detroit is being outclassed on a 60 minute basis.

Is this too depressing? I'm usually the optimistic one, right? Well, I am. I don't think this team is incapable of coming back. Two reasons. Number one being the way they played the first period yesterday. They got their lead and sat back, big mistake. Number two is this:

He's been amazing. Derek Zona is a solid dude from Copper & Blue, who is a must-read for everyone, not just Oilers' fans, had a great piece on Zetterberg's performance from last night. Pretty impressive stuff. I'm not a guy who loves numbers, but I don't see how you can ignore that.

But it's 3-0. This season has been stressful enough, and stressing out about a 3-0 deficit is not something I'm interested in doing. I'm just going to enjoy the game as best I can. I don't want to see them lose, but I've pretty much come to terms with their odds of coming back. I'm not going to think about the end result, just going to take it one game at a time, just like the team should.

So that's that. I see a lot of folks stressing out, and I know it's not easy, but I think people aren't crediting San Jose for really bringing their A game for the first time ever in the month of May. It doesn't look too good right now, but this team definitely has the resources it needs to win four games in a row. Of course, they've had these resources all series and find themselves down 3-0. Who knows what'll happen?

I hope two things. First, and foremost, that tomorrow isn't Nick Lidstrom's last game as a Red Wing. That thought makes me all kinds of sick and I'm going to stop typing about it. Second, I hope, if they win, San Jose comes out of the West. I dislike Chicago, and the Sedins creep me out, so I guess I'd rather see the Sharks get it done. I hate Thornton, and I think Nabokov is overrated, but they're playing well. Only team remaining who I could stomach beating them would be Boston. But I won't think about that too much now -- the series isn't over.

Gary Bettman got one last parting shot at Detroit for knocking out his team by scheduling Detroit to play San Jose tonight in Game 1. Also, apparently Detroit is going to incur some fines because Gare-Bear expected Detroit to fly out to California during the middle of the third period of Game 7, since flying out immediately after the game is breaking curfew. That fine actually has nothing to do with the NHL, but people are blaming Bettman anyway, so I'm going along with it.

So I'm forced to write my series preview now, which is no problem. Take that, commish.

Keys to the series:

Desire

Washington's first round playoff loss to Montreal is going to help San Jose lose their reputation as playoff chokers. However, it's not for a lack of trying. San Jose's big guns in Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany Heatley have combined for as many goals as Dan Boyle has in his own net. Oh yes, I went there, and I'm going there again later in this post.

Colorado was probably the coldest team in the Western Conference coming into the playoffs, but they still managed to take San Jose to six games. Early on, the series saw little scoring -- with the exception of a 6-5 OT thriller, before the Sharks closed it out with convincing 5-0 and 5-2 wins.

Meanwhile, Detroit was content to get their tails outworked game in and game out against Phoenix. Talent prevailed, and Detroit took control of the series in spots where they really looked like the superior team. But Phoenix kept finding ways to disrupt and ultimately took the series to seven games, a factor that could come into play as Detroit now has to play two days later in San Jose. In reality, it's no worse than any west coast trip Detroit's ever had, but it's the playoffs, and I'm nervous, so if Detroit loses I'm going to be puttin' on the foil (thanks to Kris at SSDD for having the most Google friendly picture of this) to talk about how the NHL really wants Detroit to lose.

Matchups

One thing I saw in the last series that I forgot to mention in my very broad series wrap-up was how easily Detroit's third and fourth lines were hemmed into their own zone. Phoenix was great on the cycle, and it seemed like the longest shifts that just ended in bad turnovers, stupid penalties, or only-somewhat-helpful icing calls came from the bottom two lines. From my memory of the regular season series, San Jose was also very strong on the cycle -- more skill and size than Phoenix. That's a recipe for disaster if the smaller Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves get caught against Joe Thornton with the puck deep in the zone. For what it's worth, I thought the 4th line was better in the Phoenix series than the 3rd line, and I think that the bigger and slightly more physical (though Helm and Eaves are certainly willing) will have more success against San Jose's size.

Coming into the series, as you'll see momentarily, San Jose has distributed their offensive talent well. Marleau and Thornton are on the top line and Heatley (who missed some time with injury last round) is on the 3rd line, with secondary scoring in Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski, and Devin Setoguchi on the second line. Tough to say which line deserves Detroit's shutdown crew of Henrik Zetterberg's line with Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski: the line with the players that should be scoring (Marleau/Thornton), the line with the most dangerous scorer (Heatley), or the line that's actually doing the scoring (Pavelski and company). For now, I'd match Zetterberg with Thornton, Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall against the guys who are scoring, and just pray that Heatley is more injured than he sounds on the 3rd line. UPDATE: I started writing this, then took an hour break, now I feel like Datsyuk should go against Thornton and Zetterberg against Pavelski. I don't think I'll be able to decide which match up I'd prefer seeing.

Both teams love the match-up game, as you'd imagine they might. For any new fans out there, San Jose's coach is Todd McLellan -- Mike Babcock's former assistant. They're going to love matching wits with one another, I'm looking forward to the tactical battle.

Jekyll and Hyde Goaltending

I have complete confidence in Jimmy Howard, and he did handle San Jose in the regular season pretty well. But he will remain Detroit's wild card for at least another round because of two poor performances in round number one. Given how much San Jose is capable of scoring, it's just foolish to assume that Howard is "battle-hardened," as he's never experienced anything like this.

Meanwhile, Evgeni Nabokov has historically been one of the worst goalies in NHL history against Detroit. Earlier in the season, Fox Sports Detroit was talking about how much Marty Turco being terrible against Detroit. Three of the lowest six winning percentages against Detroit are still in the NHL -- Turco, Tomas Vokoun, and Evgeni "Legally Insane" Nabokov. I believe at the time I wrote something similar to what I'm about to write now: Turco is just bad, and Vokoun has the excuse of being Nashville's goalie during the expansion years -- what's your excuse, Yev-gen-ee?

However, in the last meeting of the regular season, Nabokov made 50 saves en route to San Jose's only win over Detroit this season. In the other three matches... not so much. Nabokov is definitely a capable goaltender, but mentally, he's always been very suspect. He's incredibly easy to rattle, making the first goal of the games in this series more important than they usually are. Get one or two quick ones past Nabokov and it's going to be a long night in SoCal. However, overlooking him is a mistake and he's more than capable of stealing a game. San Jose fans are breathing down his neck, so any slip is the likely end of his tenure as a Shark. However, I think that anything short of a Cup will probably end his tenure as a Shark.

Breakin' it down:

FORWARDS

Patrick Marleau | Joe Thornton (A) | Torrey Mitchell
This is what should be San Jose's top line, but none of these players scored in the first round. Still, they'll burn you if you decide to ignore them. These players should be well-known so I'll be brief. Marleau is the former captain of the club who was stripped of the leadership role to start this season because, well, he's an awful leader. He's not good at inspiring Thornton to be less terrible in the playoffs. Credit to Thornton, he's a tremendous regular season player and one of the most dominating players I've ever seen with the puck. But his game just does not translate to playoff hockey. The three goals he scored in his second ever NHL season, in 11 games, represent his best playoff ever. It worked out for Marleau though, as he scored 44 goals this season. Mitchell is a new addition to the line, presumably under the thinking that his speed and energy will get the other two going, because it certainly isn't his offensive ability. Well, while Mitchell doesn't have hands of stone, he only had two goals this season.

Ryan Clowe | Joe Pavelski | Devin Setoguchi
This line represents 24 points scored in six games against the Avalanche. Clowe is a tremendous worker who excels in front of the net, but unlike Holmstrom (most of the time anyway), he's fairly dangerous from the slot and outside of the crease area. Pavelski is probably my favorite Shark right now, but that's sure to change because he's red hot, and also pretty clutch. Both he and Setoguchi have great speed. Setoguchi is the better shooter in my eyes, though his 20 goals this year didn't touch his 31 from last year, possibly due to playing less with Thornton.

Dany Heatley | Logan Couture | Manny Malhotra
Heatley is obviously the guy to look out for on this line, having scored 39 goals after coming over from Ottawa in the offseason for Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo, among other prizes. He's dangerous from everywhere, but isn't known as a huge playoff performer, with his only good postseason coming with seven goals in Ottawa's run to the '07 Finals. He'll still be dangerous, especially to San Jose fans who don't know when he'll demand a trade due to being placed on the 3rd line. Couture may not be a household name, but he's a former first round pick of the team and I know firsthand from his OHL days that he's a capable playmaker. I haven't seen him at length in the NHL yet, but he did have a two-goal game in the first round. And most fans should be familiar with Malhotra as "that guy on Columbus' 3rd line who randomly scores great goals against Detroit and only Detroit." I don't know why that is. But he's now that guy on San Jose's 3rd line, so watch out for him.

Dwight Helminen/Jed Ortmeyer | Scott Nichol | Jamie McGinn
Ortmeyer is the regular winger on this line but he missed the final four games of the first round. I'm not sure of his status but it does not sound like he'll be out long-term. I don't have much to say about him other than the fact that he's up for the Masterton and I have a ton more respect for him than I did last week because I found out he has to inject himself every day in the stomach with a needle because of a rare blood clotting disorder. Nichol centers the line and serves as the team's pest and just generally as someone that I don't like. McGinn is a young player who spent most of this season in the NHL with the exception of 27 games. He's a smart player capable of chipping in offense, but his upside isn't anything special

Depth: Designated fighter Brad Staubitz probably won't see the ice in this series. Players buried in the AHL who saw time this season include another fighter in Frazer McLaren, as well as a couple promising young players in Benn Ferriero and Steven Zalewski. There's also the high-scoring (in the AHL) and diminutive Ryan Vesce.

DEFENSE

Douglas Murray | Dan Boyle (A)

Hahaha, I told you I'd show it again! I'm so funny. Seriously though, Boyle is a rare offensive defenseman that I really believe is solid in his own end. He shook off this play the best he could and finished the series strong. I don't have any doubts about him being solid. And Murray is everyone's favorite Swedish Douglas. Does that make sense? It shouldn't, and neither does anything about him. He's freakishly strong and physical. This pairing will probably see a lot of #40 and #13.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic | Rob Blake (C)
The (stealth edit: second youngest) youngest and oldest member of San Jose's defensive corps. Vlasic is a perfect example of a player who plays well when you don't notice him, because this is his fourth year in the league and I can't tell you much about how he plays. Blake is a little more visible. While a shadow of what he used to be, he's still physical, he's still got a big shot, and San Jose still uses him on occasion in front of the net on the powerplay.

Kent Huskins | Jason Demers
Huskins is a solid two-way presence who's capable in his own end but also fairly mobile and useful with the puck. He still feels like a Duck to me even though the Sharks got him at last year's trade deadline. Demers is a rookie this season who started the season among rookie scoring leaders before ultimately cooling off and enjoying that "up and down" NHL/AHL thing that must be truly annoying. Demers will probably see some PP time as he's a gifted playmaker, but I'd he'll be used excessively at even strength.

Depth: Not sure in his status for this series either, but you've got to imagine if the veteran Niclas Wallin is healthy, he'll play over Demers. Derek Joslin and Jay Leach are the only other defenders with any chance of seeing ice time.

GOALTENDING

Evgeni Nabokov | Thomas Greiss

I've already gone over Nabokov. As inconsistent as he is, he'd truly have to be awful, or perhaps dead, for Greiss to see the ice in this series. Greiss isn't terrible by any stretch, but San Jose leans hard on Nabokov and I've never seen Greiss play against a team that isn't awful.

To close it off, a look around the league. I like to make predictions, but consider this: I was wrong on every Eastern Conference series from last round, because I made a fatal mistake. I was under the impression that the bottom four teams in the conference sucked, but I can see now that the conference sucks from top to bottom. Chicago was the only series I got wrong in the West, because teams that are supposed to win do win, in this conference.

Vancouver over Chicago in 7: Looking forward to this rematch for sure, and I think like any good rematch, Vancouver will prevail in a long series. Niemi was better than Huet could have been, but not unbeatable. Neither was Luongo, but I think he'll calm down for this one.

Pittsburgh over Montreal in 6: This is Pittsburgh vs. Jaroslav Halak. I picked them to lose in the last round, but I don't think any of the three teams remaining can beat them now.

Philadelphia over Boston in 7: I'm seeing a lot of long series I guess, but I do think Philadelphia more so than the other upset teams proved that they are better than their seed indicates. Boston is getting Savard back, but I think Philadelphia is deeper (even with injuries).

Alright. 9,972 seconds before the puck drops, but who's counting?

Dear readers,

Greetings. I just wanted to let you all know that I'm the worst blogger ever. As I mention just about every post now, I've been busy with school and it seems as though every Wings game is on a night that I have quite a bit to do. But I wrote like half a post before Game 7, then I stopped. I don't know what happened.

Between you and me, it was hard to stay motivated. That series was frustrating. All credit to Phoenix, because that was their game plan: weather the storm and capitalize on your chances. It seemed like the story of the season for Detroit. They got outworked all series long but still held on to steal a few games because they could get by on talent alone. There's just no way to win a series on talent alone, so I had a bad feeling in the last two games that they might fall apart. The effort level in Game 6 blew my mind -- I don't think it's good that this team has to be on the ropes to bring their A-game. More on that later.

But guess what, dear reader? I'm done with school now. The focus is now hockey. Let's get started.

Howard's Haters

Phenomenal bounce back performance by Jimmy Howard. Maybe I had Chris Osgood pegged wrong -- he is a good mentor for Jimmy. Twice this series a fair amount of people started to doubt Howard's ability -- twice he bounced back with a strong performance. That's definitely an Osgood trait, at least in the playoffs. His attitude was perfect coming into this game. I wasn't a huge fan of him just calling all of Phoenix's Game 6 goals "lucky," but clearly, he honestly felt that way and he didn't dwell on any of what were some pretty weak goals. The goal he did let up was pretty weak, but it was a smart play by Vern Fiddler, even if he did hit the puck before it actually hit the ice.

Overall, I think it was a great first playoff series for him. Like I said back in November when everyone else had turned against Howard, he's a rookie goalie, and there are ups and downs. I don't by that garbage of "there are no rookies in the playoffs." This is a guy with no playoff experience -- a playoff rookie. He's going to learn the hard way a couple of different lessons. Hopefully he was able to learn them in this series and we'll see him go on a bit of a hot streak headed into the next round. At the very least, his haters should have picked up on the fact that he's going to rebound if he has a bad performance.

All Hail Pavel

Pavel Datsyuk carried the team on his back in Game 7. I felt he was pretty strong all series, but I saw some people getting on his performance in some of the Wings' losses. I didn't see that. He looked dangerous every time he had the puck, but definitely not in any game more than last night. Best player on the ice. Good news going into a series against a team with a little more star power in San Jose.

Although Datsyuk stole the show in Game 7, it was Henrik Zetterberg who was the MVP of the series. He put on such a performance that I'm honestly more angry at him for not bringing this every game in the regular season. But it's the playoffs, and people step up. Good to see that Conn Smythe Z is in full force.

These Players Suck

I hope Johan Franzen enjoyed his series off and is ready to start the playoffs next round. Darren Helm had a terrible series and I feel like nobody's talking about it. He had trouble clearing the puck all series on the PK. He had one of the worst shifts I've ever seen in Game 6, then followed that up by failing to clear the puck twice on his first shift of the game last night. I'm also filing a missing player report for Danny Cleary and Niklas Kronwall.

I don't think Brad Stuart had nearly as bad of a series as people say. That's what I don't like about defensive defensemen -- they make one mistake like the first goal of Game 6, and all of a sudden they had a bad series. Then he scores a breakaway goal, and he had a good game? Stuart's game is not about offense, people. He was responsible for a couple of goals but I think for most of the series he was breaking up odd-man rushes since Kronwall got caught deep and missed a ton of hits, over and over again.

Not as much as the East

If Montreal wins tonight, Pittsburgh basically advances to the Stanley Cup Finals. Seriously. Montreal, Boston, and Philadelphia? These teams didn't even look like they wanted to be in the playoffs a month ago. And they knock out all the supposed contenders? What a joke. At least the contenders in the West got the job done, if they have any strength to stand when they're done beating up on each other.

More later

Series preview on San Jose coming soon.