Most gentlemanly general manager?

I know this is about a month earlier than anybody wanted to read this post, but I've been itching to write it since Detroit got eliminated. Nothing helps me deal with a playoff loss more than just sitting down and really picking apart Detroit's options in the offseason. This offseason's going to be different in two respects. The makeup of the team could look a lot different, but unlike most years where that's because of outgoing free agents, this year it's because Detroit can't make any moves until they get word from about four or five players on whether or not they intend on playing another season. They need to know if there's even space available, and they need to know what kind of cap room they can play with. Secondly, unlike most teams who wait until July 1st to make a free agent splash, Detroit has already had theirs in a way, in the form of the news that Jiri Hudler is returning. That puts them significantly over the cap and it's only May.

They'll have to lose something, but it's really unclear what that'll be at this point. I like to break it down position by position and focus on the big picture, so let's take a look at what we're working with. Also, if you haven't seen it, check out the playoff postmortem post directly below this one.

GOALTENDING

UFA: None.
RFA: Daniel Larsson
Incoming: None.
Staying: Jimmy Howard, Chris Osgood (?) | Thomas McCollum, Jordan Pearce
NEED: Possibly one AHL goaltender, possibly one NHL backup.

Before I even say anything else, I'm not advocating getting rid of Chris Osgood. The one thought I had charting that out is this: what if Osgood retires? He's lost his starting spot, he's lost Mike Babcock's confidence and even took a shot or two at his decision-making. Osgood's season was a near disaster from start to finish. Much like last season, he started slowly, but Babcock didn't handle the situation the same way. Detroit was really falling fast in the standings and this team couldn't afford to start a goalie that wasn't guaranteed to bring his A-game, or even his B-game for that matter. Osgood started less and less and his confidence got lower and lower. It looks unlikely that he'll reclaim the starting position at any point next year, the last year on his contract, and his 38-year-old season, which is the age he's said at several times he'd like to retire at. Why stay? I've said otherwise at different points of the season, but I do believe he is a good mentor. Would he stay just to hang out with his buddies, mentor Jimmah, and play in 20 games? Tough to get in his head.

I wager that those chances are slim. I only wanted to bring it up to ask all of you if you think it's reasonable to even think we may be without a backup goaltender to start next season. This is really the first year in a couple where the goaltending picture isn't hazy. We have a clear starter, and someone who could be a very good backup if he were played more regularly and could get into a rhythm. But I believe a retirement would confirm a definite rift between Babcock and Osgood, which would be sad considering that Osgood was probably the biggest reason Detroit won the Cup in 2008.

Even so, it's too early to say that the Jimmy Howard show has begun. I've said it all season, and some still don't understand -- rookie goaltenders are fragile. You know what I'm going to say all next season? Sophomore goaltenders are even more fragile. The dreaded "sophomore slump" couldn't be more applicable to goaltenders. Look at last year's Calder winner, Columbus' Steve Mason, for evidence of that. Unlike with forwards though, it's not much of a mystery as to why. When you play a team enough times, they start to figure you out. I'm a Jimmy supporter and even I can tell you his rebound control still needs major work. He's also prone to bad angle goals and completely melting down once he lets in a bad angle goal. Once NHL teams find these subtleties, then we'll see what kind of goaltender we have. I think he's confident enough to get past it, but I do hope that Osgood is able to stay ready.

Looking at the AHL, the team's lone free agent is Daniel Larsson. Larsson nearly stole the starting spot away from Howard as an AHL rookie in 2008-09 with an all-star season, but was inconsistent in his second professional season. Larsson doesn't appear to have Ryno Syndrome, but like all Swedes, the temptation to abandon "paying your dues" in the AHL and play pro hockey in the SEL or even the KHL, for more money, is always there. When Larsson signed here -- coming over after winning the award for best goaltender in Sweden -- he said "if Erik Ersberg can play in the NHL, then so can I." Two years later, Ersberg barely saw the ice for Los Angeles this season, and Larsson only has a few pre-season games to his credit. Will he get frustrated and leave? AIK seems to think so, a club in Sweden who was promoted back to the SEL after playing a few seasons in SWE-2. Someone I spoke to said that AIK's fanbase is pretty rabid and that right now a ton of players are rumored to play there next year. He went on to say that Larsson has played for AIK's two biggest rivals, making his chances of landing there even more unlikely.

His return will hopefully lead to an NHL debut at some point so Detroit can decide whether he will be ready for the backup role if Osgood retires after next season. He might see less playing time, as late in the season 2008 1st round draft pick Thomas McCollum, started to get it together, but overall his first pro season was rocky. Neither he nor ECHL goaltender Jordan Pearce, proved they were ready to start in the AHL, and consequently, leave Detroit's post-Osgood backup spot in limbo if Larsson chooses to head back to Europe.

DEFENSE

UFA: Nicklas Lidstrom, Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda | Doug Janik
RFA: Derek Meech | Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, Sergei Kolosov
Incoming: Jakub Kindl (AHL), Brendan Smith (NCAA), Brian Lashoff (OHL)
Staying: Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart, Jonathan Ericsson | Logan Pyett, Travis Ehrhardt, Sebastien Piche
NEED: Panic rooms, "Dougie Janiks," and to cut some dead weight.

Defense. Take a deep breath.

This position will be entirely dependent on Nick Lidstrom. Decisiongate '10 is already in full force, complete with paranoia that's sweeping the nation and people over-analyzing comments and minor stories. Today's "oh no!" story came when it was leaked that Lidstrom's 16-year-old son has been registered in a hockey school back in Sweden (this is typical for how Swedish prospects are groomed, they take classes but also spend a lot of time every day on the ice with their team). Nick says this is not a sign that they'll be in Sweden next year, but a necessary step to make sure his son has a place to play if they end up in Sweden next year, as there is a deadline for registration. Lidstrom expects that it'll take "a couple weeks" to make up his mind, and I say take all the time in the world.

If he comes back, it's at a paycut. That paycut alone will determine what Detroit can spend this offseason. He was supposed to take a paycut after his last contract, but only cut down from $7.6 million to $7.45 million, along with a promise from Ken Holland that he would remain the highest paid player on the team. This promise is what worries me -- is Nick Lidstrom a greedy guy? Was this necessary for him, or did Ken just offer it on his own to show his importance? You'd love to believe it's the latter, but who knows. I would be thrilled if they could get Lidstrom down to $4-5 million. That would comfortably fit Hudler and open up a spot for an additional impact free agent.

But if he retires? Panic room. You're left with Brian Rafalski, whose two giveaways in about a second and a half set up the game-winning goal in the decisive Game 5, and Niklas Kronwall, who was clearly never the same after returning from his knee-on-knee hit from the worthless Georges Laraque. He did not get involved in the offense often, when he did he wasn't producing, and I don't think he Kronwalled a single player in the playoffs. He just wasn't himself. Then you've got Brad Stuart, who I felt was phenomenal all season but his numbers don't show it, and Jonathan Ericsson, who was much better late in the season but still not quite taking advantage of all the tools he has.

In the picture for next season is Jakub Kindl. Kindl was selected 19th overall in 2005 and enjoyed a stellar OHL career. As the story goes, he nearly made the Red Wings out of camp as a 19-year-old, but ended up returning for his final year of junior. He'll be 23 next year, and he's still not an NHLer. He struggled defensively in his AHL career but has slowly made enough progress where I'm comfortable with him on the blueline. He should be able to step right in on the powerplay, but will probably be in and out of the lineup until he's fully acclimated to the NHL.

It'll also be interesting to see where Brendan Smith fits in. Formerly a forward, Smith is currently one of the most offensively gifted defensemen not in the NHL and enjoyed a breakout junior season that has many wondering if he can jump right to the NHL. The consensus seems to be yes, at least among people who have no idea how crowded Detroit's blueline is for next season. Defense is also the knock on Smith, so it seems very unlikely he makes the jump, especially at the expense of Kindl. At the very least, it will be interesting to see how quickly he can close the gap in training camp, potentially earning himself some time if injuries strike.

Lidstrom and Kindl give Detroit a top six. That does leave three "regulars" from this season in limbo. Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda, and Derek Meech. Lilja is a great guy to have around the locker room and definitely isn't done playing, given his semi-recent return from an extended absence. His $1.2 million cap hit this season makes him an expensive spare part. If he doesn't take a slim cut, he might need to find himself a new team. I feel that Lebda will choose to leave, most likely to a cellar-dwelling team who could use his speed and proficient puck-moving ability, possibly baiting him in with the chance to get some powerplay time. Meech is in the same boat (Mebdeech, always), but has the disadvantage (to his interests) of being a restricted free agent, meaning if Detroit sends him a qualifying offer, they'll retain his rights and be able to decide what to do with him from there.

I don't like the idea of having half of Mebdeech as our #7 defenseman, and I hate the idea of keeping both, since Detroit has carried eight defenseman for a few seasons now. Both have been around for a few seasons, neither has proven they belong on Detroit's blueline. I do really like Lilja given that he is roughtly 75% more mistake-free since ruining my summer in 2007. Ideally, he takes $800,000, but realistically, he deserves a full-time NHL job. Maybe Kindl has a bad camp and starts as the #7, working his way in when Kronwall inevitably gets hurt. Lilja or a free agent, I say. UPDATE: While writing this, Khan conveniently posted an article where he asserts Meech will likely be brought back. I never know if Khan actually asks people these things or just throws in his opinions

A quick glance at the AHL shows that Smith will likely be joining Logan Pyett, the only returning regular. Travis Ehrhardt did not play too much as a rookie pro but showed signs he's ready for a full-time job. Sebastien Piche was also a rookie, playing in only nine games before spending the rest of the season in the ECHL, where he found his offensive touch. Seems like a scary idea for Grand Rapids to carry four defensemen that didn't play in the AHL full-time next year, adding Smith and Brian Lashoff, who's looked great for to straight seasons in tryouts following his OHL season, to that mix. They'll likely lose both Doug Janik and Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, who is restricted but told a Norwegian paper that Detroit already told him they won't be bringing him back, and also received an offer from MODO in Sweden. I was under the impression that Detroit would receive a conditional draft pick if Tollefsen did not re-sign in Detroit, but I can't find anything to confirm that. Sergei Kolosov is the other free agent. He'll be 25 next season, but has always been a long-term project. I think Detroit should bring him back, but the KHL will certainly be seeking him out as well.

Overall, Grand Rapids will need some Doug Janik-type defensemen who will be able to clear waivers for a potential NHL call-up, but also play good hockey in Grand Rapids. I'm in complete favor of bringing Janik back, but the nature of the journeyman AHLer is to live off one-way deals, and Detroit hasn't brought back too many of them in the past few seasons. A guy like Janik, having had a great year in the AHL, might look to sign with a weaker NHL team now to find a full-time NHL job.

OFFENSE

UFA: Tomas Holmstrom, Todd Bertuzzi, Jason Williams, Kirk Maltby, Brad May | Jeremy Williams, Riley Armstrong, Jamie Tardif, Ryan Oulahen
RFA: Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller, Justin Abdelkader | Mattias Ritola, Evan McGrath, Johan Ryno
Incoming: Jiri Hudler (KHL), Willie Coetzee (WHL), Brent Raedeke (WHL), Joakim Andersson (SEL)
Staying: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Dan Cleary, Kris Draper | Jan Mursak, Cory Emmerton, Tomas Tatar, Francis Pare, Jordan Owens, Dick Axelsson
NEED: Cap space, roster space, and to make hard decisions

As it stands, Detroit could pretty much go into the season as is and have a pretty good offense, speaking in pure offensive power. The fact that over 2/3 of their bottom six is headed towards free agency is a little worrisome.

To me, the priority here is retirement. I actually wondered in 2008 when Tomas Holmstrom revealed that he battled through the postseason with three or four pretty bad injuries, how long a player who plays his game can last? He was pretty healthy this season, but who knows what he has that liners. He'll be 38 next season. I think he's still effective, and he's given no inclination that he's even thinking about it, but I wouldn't rule out retirement completely. Kirk Maltby could be on the outs as well. He's said that he's preparing this offseason as if he's playing next season, but as you'll see shortly, he'll be the easiest to get rid of. Detroit's a loyal team so if he truly wants to come back there will be no stopping him, but hopefully Holland can at least give him the Chelios treatment and say "look, it just can't be done." I like Kirk as a person, but he went out of the lineup in March and I feel like I haven't seen him in over a year -- he just doesn't have much to offer anymore. And while I think he'll be staying, Kris Draper is Maltby's BFF, so he could be on watch as well.

The only reason that Todd Bertuzzi got a second chance in Detroit was because they desperately had to scrape the bottom of the free agency barrel when Jiri Hudler bolted late in the offseason. Now, it's Hudler's return that might cost Bertuzzi his job. I was very supportive of Bertuzzi all season long, but I'm not entirely sold on him coming back. Health was his concern coming in, and he played in every game for the Wings, but I think it's still a concern going forward. He's also getting up there in age and was had two pretty frustrating doubts this year. My concern is that he's looking for a multi-year deal to close out his career, and he'll quickly turn me against him if he gets a two or three year deal and scores 12 goals next season, given that Hudler's return takes a chunk of ice time away from him. That said, he carried this team on his wonky back briefly midseason, and was a force in the playoffs. Won't be disappointed if he comes back, but it'll be a resounding "meh" from me if he bolts for more money (again).

It's not his fault that he got hurt, nor will it be his fault when Jason Williams definitely does not get a contract this summer. If Brad May retires, Detroit needs to get that soft, velvety voice into the FSN studios. Next.

The reason Lidstrom needs to take a paycut is because of Detroit's restricted free agents. While none will get very far demanding the big bucks, Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, and Patrick Eaves all deserve decent raises. I don't really know how much, probably all shorter team deals in the $1-1.5 million range if it's a multi-year deal. Every year that Ken Holland can get them to sign for in that range over two years will make me love him even more, because they're worth every penny. I'm 85% sure that Abdelkader has to clear waivers now because he's technically got three professional seasons (even though his first was only two games, after his collegiate season). If he is eligible to to play in the AHL, I worry about him developing bad habits there. I don't think he's a bonafide NHLer yet, but he just looks so out of place in the AHL that I think it's best he just learns as he goes in the NHL.

I left Drew Miller out because I'm still really on the fence. If they bring back Bertuzzi and the other three RFAs, that's already 12 forwards. They're more likely to carry eight defensemen than 14 forwards, and Mattias Ritola is also out of options for going to the AHL. Here's the thing: Ritola's definitely been in the long-term picture longer than Miller, who was a waiver pickup after severe injury problems (also perhaps a sign that Detroit didn't have faith in a guy like Ritola, at that point). Miller scored a few big goals and doesn't cheat you on effort, but just doesn't have much more upside than a 4th liner in my book -- also don't think I noticed him once against San Jose. Ritola works just as hard and has more offensive skill, but at this point, Miller is the better fit as a 4th liner. I'm thinking long-term though, and I'd really hate to lose Ritola after all the progress he's made since turning pro. I'll take him, but I won't be upset if they keep Miller. I will be upset if they keep Maltby over either.

Depth is plentiful. Grand Rapids loses Jeremy Williams, who is a dangerous enough offensive threat that, like Janik, I'll miss if they don't bring him back, Riley Armstrong (acquired at the deadline for Andy Delmore), captain Jamie Tardif, and former captain who missed this entire season with a hip injury Ryan Oulahen. Don't see a reason to bring back any of the final three. Restricted, Evan McGrath won't be qualified because Detroit ended up loaning him out of Grand Rapids, and Johan Ryno has twice turned down the AHL for Sweden, but could always beg his way back to the team now that his Swedish team has released him for next season. He's skilled, I'd take him, but he is a headache and at this point I don't think there's any chance.

Grand Rapids will be able to score goals, with Cory Emmerton, Jan Mursak, and Tomas Tatar each gaining a year of experience, looking like the next generation of Detroit's scorers. Francis Pare returns, as well as Jordan Owens, a new prospect acquired from the NY Rangers, who is more of a grinder. They'll be joined by Joakim Andersson, who could step into a big role having two full SEL seasons under his belt (the SEL is very similar skill-wise to the AHL, top end talent is a little bit better in the SEL though). Willie Coetzee and Brent Raedeke could both go back to juniors for their overage seasons, but are sound two-way performers who can chip in (moreso Coetzee, he has a great shot), both good bets to make the AHL next season. They have the option of bringing in two more prospects, Jesper Samuelsson or Stephen Johnston, both of whom have had disappointing seasons, and Detroit will lose rights to if they don't sign them by June. Otherwise, they'll bring in roughly three veteran, proven players to help the team's top lines. There's even a chance Dick Axelsson will come back, but it's sounding like he's shying way from the AHL again.

So, what do all those words I just wrote even mean? Courtesy of CapGeek, here's a very optimistic look at our cap picture, with my suggested lines, and the cap set at the predicted $57.7m. Players who are asterisked are my guessed salaries.

FORWARDS
* Tomas Holmstrom ($2.000m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Johan Franzen ($3.955m)
Jiri Hudler ($2.875m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)
* Todd Bertuzzi ($2.000m) /  Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / * Patrick Eaves ($1.000m)
Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($0.900m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($0.850m)
* Mattias Ritola ($0.550m) (Mursak, Emmerton, and Tatar for injury call-ups)
DEFENSEMEN
* Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m) / Brian Rafalski ($6.000m)
Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m) / Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)
Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m) / Brad Stuart ($3.750m) 
* Andreas Lilja ($0.800m) (Smith, Pyett, maybe Kolosov for injury call-ups)
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($0.717m) / Chris Osgood ($1.417m) (Larsson getting a game or three, if the standings permit)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 22; PAYROLL: $56.763m; CAP ROOM: $0.937m BONUSES: $0.000m

Lines-wise, Hudler's addition provides some interesting flexibility, but also a gap since there are eight "top-six" fowards. Eaves has a good shot and scored 20 as a rookie, so maybe he'll get a chance on a scoring line. Also, the 4th line had the problem late in the year of not having a natural center, but now has three natural centers.

This all leaves under $1 million to add likely an 8th defenseman, which could easily just be Meech since he can play a little forward. But those are low totals for all the RFAs, only a slight raise for Bertuzzi, and cuts for Holmstrom, Lidstrom, and Lilja, who all had strong seasons. Sometimes it just doesn't make any sense, but in my eyes, they'll need to take cuts to stay on board, but perhaps not all of them since there's actually some space left in this one.

That looks like a contending team to me. I'll outline possibly a few free agents when we get closer to July (so we know if anyone retired, and know who's going to be on the market for sure). So let's start this. I warned all of you that this is incredibly detailed, and yes, these are the kinds of things I do in my spare summer time. I'd like to get some discussion going, feel free to throw out your own scenarios too, I enjoy reading through them. Ready, set... go!