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It's the second half of the season -- the "stretch run." That will possibly become the most overused phrase on this blog and others in the coming months, as this half of the season hasn't been so important for Detroit in years.
While the prerogative is to actually make the playoffs, and play well for a change, something that's already popped up and is definitely good to keep at least in the back of your mind is contract talk. Detroit's scratching their way towards the playoffs now, but it seems a hot topic of discussion with several players lately has been their future in Detroit -- have they done enough where they deserve another contract?
Detroit didn't commit to any long contracts in the offseason, so they'll pretty much be exactly where they were last offseason. Because of how long it took to get their own free agents picked out, they only had the bargain bin to pick through in August. Ken Holland is likely going to start re-negotiating with some players relatively soon, and I would expect a signing or two before the playoffs -- which is when Holland shuts down negotiations for a few months to not distract any players.
So while Detroit's off today, and I have some major free time, I wanted to open up the discussion among fans as to who deserves to come back.
Forwards
(cap hit, until when in parentheses)
Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083, '21) | Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7, '14) | Johan Franzen ($3.954, '20) Danny Cleary ($2.8, '13) | Valtteri Filppula ($3.0, '13) | Kris Draper ($1.583, '11) empty | empty | empty empty | empty | empty empty, sorta.
As you can see -- the core is under contract, and under contract for a while. This leaves Detroit a lot of flexibility because if worst comes to worst, they can basically blow this team up and start over. Those six give you a good base and a good balance of talent and leadership, to where the parts around it are largely interchangeable, depending on cap space. Before we look at our impending free agents, let's look at the two wild cards.
Jiri Hudler: Hudler signed a two-year contract in the KHL, so he's not expected back. However, the winds of change are upon us, and the Hudler rumors are starting to get moving early. The hot rumor out there is that Hudler called Ken Holland to wish him a happy New Year. Gasp, how scandalous, right? Well, that gets people talking and many are wondering if that was really the only thing they talked about. The real reason I take stock into believing something like this is because the KHL has been an absolute circus this season.
From game cancellations due to 619 penalty minutes in the first five minutes of a game to the continuing politics of the KHL trying to keep players from going to the NHL, the "rival league" isn't looking so fierce anymore. Hudler is all but blacklisted from international play (no Olympics) and doesn't have much securing him into staying for next season. His contract there is worth $5 million a season, which is equivalent to somewhere between $7-$9 in NHL money million when you consider that's tax and escrow free, and consider that KHL clubs pay living (food, shelter, even transportation) expenses for their players. It's essentially all Hudler's to spend on rich guy stuff like yachts and rare minerals. He may determine that he's had enough and come back to Detroit. And if he ever comes back, he's locked into Detroit for two years at a cap hit of $2.875 -- a lot for Happy "The Rock" Hudler, but decent value for a talented player who was demanding nearly $4 million.
Ville Leino: If you read that lineup up top and know anything about Detroit's contracts, you'll know that Leino is actually under contract for next season. However, if things keep going the way they are, Leino may find himself in a new city for next season. Leino's rookie season has been nothing short of disastrous. Unlike most rookies, you can't just chalk it up to inexperience because Leino will actually turn 27 in October. His play from here to game 82 should answer this question. If Leino continues to disappoint, Detroit would likely looking in to trading him to a weaker club for anything while they still have a chance. They may not even get that opportunity to, because if he feels he's going to be in and out of the press box all season again, he may prefer to bolt back to Finland. I'm sure that'll upset the contingent of fans who take terrible offense to the notion that a player does not want to play for the Red Wings (see Axelsson, Richard), but sometimes it just doesn't work out. I can't personally blame him, or say that I'd be at all upset by it. If he does return next season, he's locked into one more year at $800,000.
Now, let's briefly look at Detroit's impending unrestricted free agents at the forward position. They're listed with their cap hit from this season.
Tomas Holmstrom, $2.25 -- Many, including myself, were curious just when the shelf life for a player like Holmstrom expires. Detroit's had a handful of players play into their 40s, but none even come close to taking the punishment that Homer takes every night. He was productive until he got hurt, but his injury isn't too concerning, because a foot injury isn't concluded on the long list of things that have hampered Homer every year (particularly, groin, back, and knee). No doubt that Holmstrom is back if he chooses not to retire, I'll pencil in a one-year deal at $1.5 million. Significant discount, still a bargain for a 20-goal scorer.
Todd Bertuzzi, $1.5 -- Todd is possibly the reason I started writing this post, as there's been quite a bit of talk (including the podcast) about Bertuzzi finishing his career in Detroit. As an unabashed Protuzzi fan, you probably think you know what I'm going to say. However, you'd be wrong. I cringe at the idea of Bertuzzi getting a deal to finish his career in Detroit, because the guy is a walking time bomb. I'm a big fan of his play, but I don't have enough faith in his durability to see him get a 3-4 year deal. He's spent the last few years with a nagging back injury, which has prevented him from staying in top form. Supposedly he feels better, and I think that's very apparent from his play on the ice. I hope he does come back, but I'd prefer one-year deals until he inevitably breaks. At best, I'd give him two years at $2.0 million. Enough of a raise to keep him a big part of the team, but cheap enough where it's not going to destroy Detroit if he's only 80% the next few years, unable to backcheck, play along the boards, and score the way he has this season.
Jason Williams, $1.5 -- You might recall I was also a fan of bringing Williams back in the fold, but it's important to remember that was only because I believed he was the best fit of the free agents left in August. Overall, I'm not a huge fan of his play. He's in a tough spot as Detroit was playing like trash before he got hurt, and he's since seen a lot of young players put up as good or better numbers than he was putting up in his 4th line role. I don't think he was bad, but I'd prefer letting him walk this summer and trying to focus free cap space on a player of bigger impact.
Kirk Maltby, $0.883 -- Sadly, if Maltby wants to come back Detroit will re-sign him. That's just the way it works -- he's one of the Wings where the loyalty factor comes into play for. Ideally, he's going to see the bigger picture. When Detroit's healthy, I don't anticipate he'll see much regular ice time. Hopefully he hangs them up, but if he had to come back, it would most likely be for just slightly above the league minimum.
Brad May, $0.5 -- A failed experiment, absolutely a horrific mistake if he's brought back. Refuses to have a fight of value, a liability on the ice, and now publicly taking credit for other people's accomplishments. I honestly believe we're in the last ten games of May as a Red Wing, as you've got to figure with Holmstrom and Williams on the mend, May will soon be a regular scratch and/or AHL-bound. I do like him as a person, hopefully he's able to find work in hockey in some facet next season.
And restricted free agents:
Darren Helm, $0.599 -- Without a doubt, Helm must be signed long-term. That may not be plausible without having a ton of cap space freed up, which would only come from something like a Lidstrom retirement. I think for now we could possibly squeeze out a four-year deal with something close to a $1.2 cap hit. Tough to say what his real worth would be, hopefully he doesn't yet realize exactly how great he is.
Justin Abdelkader, $0.85 -- Definitely coming back, and definitely an NHL regular next season regardless of whether or not he finishes this season there. Like Helm, he looks like he should be a player who needs to be a Wing for life, but it's going to be tough this season to give these players more than they're worth and still fit everyone under the cap. Abdelkader is already making a lot for a rookie, so it's not ridiculous to suggest he takes a paycut if it involves a one-way deal (Howard did), maybe in the $700,000 neighborhood. I'd give him two years at that number.
Patrick Eaves, $0.5 -- Like I said yesterday, he guaranteed himself a contract extension regardless of what happens for the rest of this season. He's formed a formidable tandem with Helm both on the 3rd line and Detroit's regular penalty kill. Durability is still an issue, but he's young and hasn't had any troubles with the concussions that have nagged him in the past few years. I'd try three years at $800,000.
Drew Miller, $0.525 -- I'm a big fan of how hard he works, but I don't necessarily see him as a lock to be signed. I don't think he's been as great in the past few weeks as he had been, and he hasn't really made much of the chances he's had on a scoring line. If you think about it, if Detroit even brings back two UFAs, along with the above three RFAs who are locks, that puts Detroit in a tough spot. If Hudler OR Maltby come back, Miller might be out. Also to be considered is...
..Mattias Ritola, $0.511 -- Ritola is an RFA who needs to clear waivers to play in Grand Rapids next season. He's been waiting patiently and looked especially good in his NHL stint this season. Rumors are starting to swirl that Ritola would prefer to go back to Sweden over another season in the AHL. I wouldn't be upset, at all, if Miller was re-signed, but if it all plays out the way I see it and Detroit had to make a choice between Miller and Ritola, I'd kind of prefer to see what the younger and more offensively skilled Ritola is capable of.
Other FAs: Kris Newbury (UFA), Jeremy Williams, Evan McGrath, Ryan Oulahen, Jamie Tardif, Johan Ryno. I wouldn't expect more than one of them would be re-signed, just for veteran Grand Rapids depth. I'd wager on McGrath.
Next in line: Tomas Tatar, Jan Mursak, Cory Emmerton, Francis Pare.
Defensemen
Brian Rafalski ($6.0, '12) | Brad Stuart ($3.75, '12) Niklas Kronwall ($3.0, '12) | Jonathan Ericsson ($0.9, '11) Jakub Kindl ($0.883 '13) | empty empty | empty
The core is in tact, but the real question is obviously Nick's big decision. Kindl is on a one-way deal and will be on the team in some form. The other interesting nugget is that most teams don't carry eight defensemen, but Detroit has really benefited from having all eight in the past two years. With Kindl graduating, Detroit might be more comfortable carrying their eight defensemen, since Sergei Kolosov, Logan Pyett, and potential rookie Brendan Smith would be their top call-ups from Grand Rapids.
Nicklas Lidstrom, $7.45 -- There was a rumor earlier this season that Lidstrom was close to a new two-year deal, but recently it seems more likely that he won't make a decision until this summer. He'll only play if he feels he's still effective. I think during that goal drought, he might have been doubting himself. I think now he'll keep producing steadily through the end of the year -- that drought, though freakishly long, was a fluke. I think he re-ups for two final years at $5.0 a pop.
Andreas Lilja, $1.25 -- Sadly, it looks like his career might be over, but Detroit's a classy enough organization that they'd probably give him another chance if he can make some kind of medical break through. In my mind, that would be absolutely ideal, so he could switch in and out with the youngsters in Kindl and Ericsson as needed. Neither are particularly good in their own end, but Lilja is. He could be used when needed, and would likely come at a bargain price since not too many teams would take a chance on him. If he were medically cleared, I would jump all over one year at $1 million.
Brett Lebda, $0.65 -- Lebda's in an interesting spot. He had a pretty regular role as a rookie, but has since had his role reduced with almost every season. He hasn't demonstrated much confidence this season. I believe it will come down to keeping one of Lebda and Meech -- splitting the Mebdeech. I think Lebda is the most likely, as an unrestricted free agent, to bolt for a regular role on a worse team. I don't expect Detroit would get in any sort of a bidding war for him.
Derek Meech, $0.483 -- Meech is in an interesting spot too. He's actually making below the league minimum, because of when his contract was signed and for how long. I would prefer they let Meech walk, but given the choice between Lebda and Meech, I think Meech offers a little more and has less of a problem containing bigger forwards and less of a problem of just staring at the puck. He's a little younger as well. I'm not sure how well he'd respond to likely being a #8 defensemen once again. He might not have a choice, as the lone restricted free agent on this list. One year, $550,000.
Other FAs: Doug Janik, Andy Delmore (UFAs), Sergei Kolosov. I see Kolosov coming back.
Next in line: Sergei Kolosov, Logan Pyett.
Goaltenders
Jimmy Howard ($0.716, '11) | Chris Osgood ($1.416, '11)
All good here. Expect Howard to play even more, and regardless of what ends up happening this year, starts in the playoffs so Detroit can be more comfortable with him if next year is Osgood's last.
Other FAs: Daniel Larsson. He should return, but it's difficult to say where his head is at. Pressure from McCollum and all indications that Detroit is much higher on him could chase him back to Sweden, but if all is well Larsson will be in the mix for an NHL job in 2011-12.
Next in line: Larsson (probably due to get a taste at the NHL at least next year), Thomas McCollum (potentially three years away from an NHL debut, they're going to milk him all they can in Grand Rapids)
Based off my projections, here's a rough estimate of our situation for next year.
Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083, '21) | Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7, '14) | Johan Franzen ($3.954, '20) Tomas Holmstrom ($1.5, '11)* | Valtteri Filppula ($3.0, '13) | Todd Bertuzzi ($2.0, '12)* Danny Cleary ($2.8, '13) | Darren Helm ($1.2, '14)* | Patrick Eaves ($0.8, '13)* Mattias Ritola ($0.6, '11)* | Justin Abdelkader ($0.7, '12)* | Kris Draper ($1.583, '11) 13th forward
Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.0, '12)* | Brian Rafalski ($6.0, '12) Niklas Kronwall ($3.0, '12) | Brad Stuart ($3.75, '12) Jakub Kindl ($0.883, '13) | Jonathan Ericsson ($0.9, '11) Andreas Lilja ($1.0, '11)* | Derek Meech ($0.55, '11)*
Jimmy Howard ($0.716, '11) | Chris Osgood ($1.416, '11)
This gives Detroit $1.862 million in cap space according to CapGeek, which is a safe number because the cap may not go up at all this season. With that cap space, I'd hope they could add another scorer -- maybe knowing that a little earlier will help that player be a little more talented than Jason Williams. Then you could flip that player in and out of the lineup with anyone on the 4th line. Additionally, Detroit could possibly squeeze out a little more cap room in the very likely event that Lilja doesn't re-sign. Another spare defensive defenseman could cost less. In a pinch (say, if a miniature Czech forward comes back), Ritola could be bumped out and Meech could be the 13th forward. Tatar is also a realistic option, while other prospects may need a while.
That's how I see it. Comments and disagreements are welcome. I just wanted to get people thinking in the second half about who deserves to stick around next season. Despite the struggles this season, looking at it this way makes me feel a lot better about it. There is a lot of flexibility, but I chose to keep most of the team together because I think they'll be fine when healthy. We'll see, I suppose.
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