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I posted this picture because, since ESPN has showed clips of this for the past month, I've now learned this is the proper way to introduce a signed player: Have them parade around a stage in uniform under a sign that said "Yes We Did," indicating that you've won the league despite the fact that these players haven't done anything yet.
It looks like it's finally over though. After some confusion last night involving somebody hacking into or being drunk with (or both) editorial privileges at the Free Press (thanks to Rob at Detroit4Lyfe for letting me take those without his permission or knowledge), strong inferences have come out of Mike Modano's own mouth: this year, he'll be a Red Wing. He's set to officially announce this on Thursday and Detroit has called a press conference for Friday to hand him his #90 sweater, according to Helene St. James.
There isn't much point in debating it anymore, so I'll be brief. "Prodano" and "Nodano" are already staples in the blogger lexicon, and he'll be under the microscope for most of the season. I'm Prodano -- I'm more Prodano than I am Protuzzi, I think Modano will have a much better year. Let's just hope expectations are kept reasonable. Despite the name on the back of his jersey, he's this team's 3rd line center. He will, most likely, be making $1.25 million. I firmly believe he'll fall between 40-50 points if he's healthy, given that he scored at a pace that averages to 41 points over a healthy 82 game season, given that just over 40% of the time, his line consisted of a combination of Toby Petersen, Krys Barch, Steve Ott, Fabian Brunnstrom, Brian Sutherby or Jere Lehtinen -- hardly the type of firepower he'll have at his disposal in Detroit.
If you call the $1.25 million accurate, here's where Detroit's at with CapGeek.
FORWARDS Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Tomas Holmstrom ($1.875m) Todd Bertuzzi ($1.937m) / Valtteri Filppula ($3.000m) / Johan Franzen ($3.954m) Jiri Hudler ($2.875m) / Mike Modano ($1.250m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m) Patrick Eaves ($0.750m) / Kris Draper ($1.583m) / Drew Miller ($0.650m)
DEFENSEMEN Nicklas Lidstrom ($6.200m) / Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m) Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m) / Jakub Kindl ($0.883m) Derek Meech ($0.500m)
GOALTENDERS Chris Osgood ($1.416m) /Jimmy Howard ($0.716m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $50,000
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter) (these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion) SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $56,875,378; BONUSES: $0 CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $2,524,622
In my mind, it would be very easy to squeeze Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader into three or four-year deals which would fit them over the cap. Many people are concerned that Modano eats cap space that could be used to give Helm and Abdelkader "bigger" contracts (for more years). My question is, how long-term do you want to go on two unproven players? It's nice to have guys like Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg locked up for life, but I don't really want that for Helm and Abdelkader. Helm's going to be extremely frustrating if he doesn't learn more patience in the offensive zone, and Abdelkader has only been used as a 4th liner. He's got real playoff experience, but this is his first full NHL season. That isn't worth a lifetime contract. He's only shown that he's a dime-a-dozen agitator and physical presence. When he picks up his offense (granted, something he could have proved this year if Detroit didn't sign Modano), then you talk about a big contract.
I like these numbers. Helm at three years, $1.2 million a year, Abdelkader at three years, $1 million a year. They'll both be unrestricted free agents after that contract, but Detroit's cap situation is going to look completely different in that time. Lidstrom will certainly be gone, and Rafalski may be as well. There's also quite a few scoring prospects in the system that are targeted at 3-4 years away, so who knows what kind of players will be knocking on the door. I am very high on both Helm and Abdelkader, but let's not kid ourselves -- these are not bluechip prospects. They have each shown flashes, and they're in the right place to cultivate that ability, but it's a little to early to be giving them anything longer than three, maybe four years.
That lowers the cap number to $324,622. That's enough to be able to call up anyone you want for injuries without someone going on to IR. However, there seems to be a lot of talk that Meech will be traded should he not crack the top six, leaving up to $824,622 for a 7th defenseman.
Apparently, there's some talk that this defenseman could be Willie Mitchell. Sportsnet says he's down to four teams of the 12 who have contacted him, and Detroit is among those teams. This is strange considering Mitchell just ended a four-year deal where he had a cap hit of $3.5 million -- higher than Niklas Kronwall. Given that Mitchell didn't play after a serious concussion sidelined him in January, and the fact that the 33-year-old wasn't the same shutdown force in Vancouver that he was in Minnesota, he's probably looking at a paycut. But even still, he'll probably get around $2 million. There's no single player Detroit could reasonably get rid of to free up that kind of space. Mitchell would be taking less money to compete for a job with Jakub Kindl, a player Detroit is very high on, for low minutes.
Playing into Detroit's favor is that two of the other teams, Vancouver (already over the cap) and San Jose, have even less cap room than Detroit (pre-Modano signing, anyway). Washington is actually pretty comfortable right now, and they desperately need someone to make Mike Green look good. I just don't see how it would work, but I'll continue to monitor it.
Until then, it's August now. That means there's really only a month and a half until training camp starts. The longer that these players stay free agents, the more likely it is Detroit gets a bargain in the last week of August. Here are some targets, but be warned, I included Shaone Morrisonn in this last time, and today Buffalo scooped him up just north of $2 million a year. Some of these players could command something similar, but it's just a matter of interest. Some will get that money, some will sign for closer to the minimum in late August or early September. I'm sorting these guys (quickly) in order of preference -- meaning the top guys would actually be the least likely to become Wings, because in my mind, they'll get bigger contracts elsewhere.
Willie Mitchell, Mike Mottau, Paul Mara, Brendan Witt, Andreas Lilja, Aaron Ward, Freddy Meyer, Aaron Johnson, Jay McKee, Nick Boynton, Randy Jones, Shane Hnidy, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Christoph Schubert, Lukas Krajicek, Jordan Hendry.
At some point, I'd just prefer keeping Doug Janik. Some of those guys are real wild cards (Ward, Meyer, Johnson, Jones, Mara) and my memories of them gravitate more to fans talking about how awful they are than anything, bad or good, I've seen on the ice from them. And the last few names -- Bergeron, Schubert, and Krajicek especially, are known more as puck-movers, liabilities on defense. Tough to pencil them in on a line with Jonathan Ericsson or Jakub Kindl, potentially. Also interesting to note is that our cap space puts us about $50,000 shy of keeping Brendan Smith. If Kindl is struggling early in the year, they could bring him up around mid-November since his pro-rated cap hit would fit under the cap around that time.
Anywho, Modano is said to be third line and 2nd powerplay. I like the looks of this.
Zetterberg | Datsyuk | Holmstrom
Bertuzzi | Filppula | Franzen
Hudler | Modano | Cleary
Abdelkader | Helm | Eaves
Zetterberg | Datsyuk | Holmstrom | Lidstrom | Rafalski
Hudler | Modano | Franzen | Kronwall | Kindl
OR Hudler | Filppula | Franzen | Kronwall | Modano
Modano played the point on Dallas' powerplay off and on. Big shot, still. He's an option.
Option is a good word. As in, it's good to have them. I favor young players so I'm bummed Abdelkader doesn't get a chance to prove he's more than a six point player. However, if Modano doesn't work out, we've got five centers in the top nine, plus guys like Abdelkader, Eaves, and Miller to throw into the mix. It's a lot more flexible than not signing Modano and trying to find something if Abdelkader doesn't click
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