Jumbo Joe's playoff fury
Written by Kyle Kujawa   
Thursday, 29 April 2010 11:44
Colorado Avalanche v San Jose Sharks - Game One
I'm tall AND sad.

Gary Bettman got one last parting shot at Detroit for knocking out his team by scheduling Detroit to play San Jose tonight in Game 1. Also, apparently Detroit is going to incur some fines because Gare-Bear expected Detroit to fly out to California during the middle of the third period of Game 7, since flying out immediately after the game is breaking curfew. That fine actually has nothing to do with the NHL, but people are blaming Bettman anyway, so I'm going along with it.

So I'm forced to write my series preview now, which is no problem. Take that, commish.

Keys to the series:

Desire

Washington's first round playoff loss to Montreal is going to help San Jose lose their reputation as playoff chokers. However, it's not for a lack of trying. San Jose's big guns in Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany Heatley have combined for as many goals as Dan Boyle has in his own net. Oh yes, I went there, and I'm going there again later in this post.

Colorado was probably the coldest team in the Western Conference coming into the playoffs, but they still managed to take San Jose to six games. Early on, the series saw little scoring -- with the exception of a 6-5 OT thriller, before the Sharks closed it out with convincing 5-0 and 5-2 wins.

Meanwhile, Detroit was content to get their tails outworked game in and game out against Phoenix. Talent prevailed, and Detroit took control of the series in spots where they really looked like the superior team. But Phoenix kept finding ways to disrupt and ultimately took the series to seven games, a factor that could come into play as Detroit now has to play two days later in San Jose. In reality, it's no worse than any west coast trip Detroit's ever had, but it's the playoffs, and I'm nervous, so if Detroit loses I'm going to be puttin' on the foil (thanks to Kris at SSDD for having the most Google friendly picture of this) to talk about how the NHL really wants Detroit to lose.

Matchups

One thing I saw in the last series that I forgot to mention in my very broad series wrap-up was how easily Detroit's third and fourth lines were hemmed into their own zone. Phoenix was great on the cycle, and it seemed like the longest shifts that just ended in bad turnovers, stupid penalties, or only-somewhat-helpful icing calls came from the bottom two lines. From my memory of the regular season series, San Jose was also very strong on the cycle -- more skill and size than Phoenix. That's a recipe for disaster if the smaller Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves get caught against Joe Thornton with the puck deep in the zone. For what it's worth, I thought the 4th line was better in the Phoenix series than the 3rd line, and I think that the bigger and slightly more physical (though Helm and Eaves are certainly willing) will have more success against San Jose's size.

Coming into the series, as you'll see momentarily, San Jose has distributed their offensive talent well. Marleau and Thornton are on the top line and Heatley (who missed some time with injury last round) is on the 3rd line, with secondary scoring in Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski, and Devin Setoguchi on the second line. Tough to say which line deserves Detroit's shutdown crew of Henrik Zetterberg's line with Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski: the line with the players that should be scoring (Marleau/Thornton), the line with the most dangerous scorer (Heatley), or the line that's actually doing the scoring (Pavelski and company). For now, I'd match Zetterberg with Thornton, Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall against the guys who are scoring, and just pray that Heatley is more injured than he sounds on the 3rd line. UPDATE: I started writing this, then took an hour break, now I feel like Datsyuk should go against Thornton and Zetterberg against Pavelski. I don't think I'll be able to decide which match up I'd prefer seeing.

Both teams love the match-up game, as you'd imagine they might. For any new fans out there, San Jose's coach is Todd McLellan -- Mike Babcock's former assistant. They're going to love matching wits with one another, I'm looking forward to the tactical battle.

Jekyll and Hyde Goaltending

I have complete confidence in Jimmy Howard, and he did handle San Jose in the regular season pretty well. But he will remain Detroit's wild card for at least another round because of two poor performances in round number one. Given how much San Jose is capable of scoring, it's just foolish to assume that Howard is "battle-hardened," as he's never experienced anything like this.

Meanwhile, Evgeni Nabokov has historically been one of the worst goalies in NHL history against Detroit. Earlier in the season, Fox Sports Detroit was talking about how much Marty Turco being terrible against Detroit. Three of the lowest six winning percentages against Detroit are still in the NHL -- Turco, Tomas Vokoun, and Evgeni "Legally Insane" Nabokov. I believe at the time I wrote something similar to what I'm about to write now: Turco is just bad, and Vokoun has the excuse of being Nashville's goalie during the expansion years -- what's your excuse, Yev-gen-ee?

However, in the last meeting of the regular season, Nabokov made 50 saves en route to San Jose's only win over Detroit this season. In the other three matches... not so much. Nabokov is definitely a capable goaltender, but mentally, he's always been very suspect. He's incredibly easy to rattle, making the first goal of the games in this series more important than they usually are. Get one or two quick ones past Nabokov and it's going to be a long night in SoCal. However, overlooking him is a mistake and he's more than capable of stealing a game. San Jose fans are breathing down his neck, so any slip is the likely end of his tenure as a Shark. However, I think that anything short of a Cup will probably end his tenure as a Shark.

Breakin' it down:

FORWARDS

Patrick Marleau | Joe Thornton (A) | Torrey Mitchell
This is what should be San Jose's top line, but none of these players scored in the first round. Still, they'll burn
you if you decide to ignore them. These players should be well-known so I'll be brief. Marleau is the former captain of the club who was stripped of the leadership role to start this season because, well, he's an awful leader. He's not good at inspiring Thornton to be less terrible in the playoffs. Credit to Thornton, he's a tremendous regular season player and one of the most dominating players I've ever seen with the puck. But his game just does not translate to playoff hockey. The three goals he scored in his second ever NHL season, in 11 games, represent his best playoff ever. It worked out for Marleau though, as he scored 44 goals this season. Mitchell is a new addition to the line, presumably under the thinking that his speed and energy will get the other two going, because it certainly isn't his offensive ability. Well, while Mitchell doesn't have hands of stone, he only had two goals this season.

Ryan Clowe | Joe Pavelski | Devin Setoguchi
This line represents 24 points scored in six games against the Avalanche. Clowe is a tremendous worker who excels in front of the net, but unlike Holmstrom (most of the time anyway), he's fairly dangerous from the slot and outside of the crease area. Pavelski is probably my favorite Shark right now, but that's sure to change because he's red hot, and also pretty clutch. Both he and Setoguchi have great speed. Setoguchi is the better shooter in my eyes, though his 20 goals this year didn't touch his 31 from last year, possibly due to playing less with Thornton.

Dany Heatley | Logan Couture | Manny Malhotra
Heatley is obviously the guy to look out for on this line, having scored 39 goals after coming over from Ottawa in the offseason for Milan Michalek
and Jonathan Cheechoo, among other prizes. He's dangerous from everywhere, but isn't known as a huge playoff performer, with his only good postseason coming with seven goals in Ottawa's run to the '07 Finals. He'll still be dangerous, especially to San Jose fans who don't know when he'll demand a trade due to being placed on the 3rd line. Couture may not be a household name, but he's a former first round pick of the team and I know firsthand from his OHL days that he's a capable playmaker. I haven't seen him at length in the NHL yet, but he did have a two-goal game in the first round. And most fans should be familiar with Malhotra as "that guy on Columbus' 3rd line who randomly scores great goals against Detroit and only Detroit." I don't know why that is. But he's now that guy on San Jose's 3rd line, so watch out for him.

Dwight Helminen/Jed Ortmeyer | Scott Nichol | Jamie McGinn
Ortmeyer is the regular winger on this line but he missed the final four games of the first round. I'm not sure of his status but it does not sound like he'll be out long-term. I don't have much to say about him other than the fact that he's up for the Masterton and I have a ton more respect for him than I did last week because I found out he has to inject himself every day in the stomach with a needle because of a rare blood clotting disorder. Nichol centers the line and serves as the team's pest and just generally as someone that I don't like. McGinn is a young player who spent most of this season in the NHL with the exception of 27 games. He's a smart player capable of chipping in offense, but his upside isn't anything special

Depth: Designated fighter Brad Staubitz probably won't see the ice in this series. Players buried in the AHL who saw time this season include another fighter in Frazer McLaren, as well as a couple promising young players in Benn Ferriero and Steven Zalewski. There's also the high-scoring (in the AHL) and diminutive Ryan Vesce.

DEFENSE

Douglas Murray | Dan Boyle (A)

 

Hahaha, I told you I'd show it again! I'm so funny. Seriously though, Boyle is a rare offensive defenseman that I really believe is solid in his own end. He shook off this play the best he could and finished the series strong. I don't have any doubts about him being solid. And Murray is everyone's favorite Swedish Douglas. Does that make sense? It shouldn't, and neither does anything about him. He's freakishly strong and physical. This pairing will probably see a lot of #40 and #13.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic | Rob Blake (C)
The (stealth edit: second youngest) youngest and oldest member of San Jose's defensive corps. Vlasic is a perfect example of a player who plays well when you don't notice him, because this is his fourth year in the league and I can't tell you much about how he plays. Blake is a little more visible. While a shadow of what he used to be, he's still physical, he's still got a big shot, and San Jose still uses him on occasion in front of the net on the powerplay.

Kent Huskins | Jason Demers
Huskins is a solid two-way presence who's capable in his own end but also fairly mobile and useful with the puck. He still feels like a Duck to me even though the Sharks got him at last year's trade deadline. Demers is a rookie this season who started the season among rookie scoring leaders before ultimately cooling off and enjoying that "up and down" NHL/AHL thing that must be truly annoying. Demers will probably see some PP time as he's a gifted playmaker, but I'd he'll be used excessively at even strength.

Depth: Not sure in his status for this series either, but you've got to imagine if the veteran Niclas Wallin is healthy, he'll play over Demers. Derek Joslin and Jay Leach are the only other defenders with any chance of seeing ice time.

GOALTENDING

Evgeni Nabokov | Thomas Greiss

I've already gone over Nabokov. As inconsistent as he is, he'd truly have to be awful, or perhaps dead, for Greiss to see the ice in this series. Greiss isn't terrible by any stretch, but San Jose leans hard on Nabokov and I've never seen Greiss play against a team that isn't awful.

To close it off, a look around the league. I like to make predictions, but consider this: I was wrong on every Eastern Conference series from last round, because I made a fatal mistake. I was under the impression that the bottom four teams in the conference sucked, but I can see now that the conference sucks from top to bottom. Chicago was the only series I got wrong in the West, because teams that are supposed to win do win, in this conference.

Vancouver over Chicago in 7: Looking forward to this rematch for sure, and I think like any good rematch, Vancouver will prevail in a long series. Niemi was better than Huet could have been, but not unbeatable. Neither was Luongo, but I think he'll calm down for this one.

Pittsburgh over Montreal in 6: This is Pittsburgh vs. Jaroslav Halak. I picked them to lose in the last round, but I don't think any of the three teams remaining can beat them now.

Philadelphia over Boston in 7: I'm seeing a lot of long series I guess, but I do think Philadelphia more so than the other upset teams proved that they are better than their seed indicates. Boston is getting Savard back, but I think Philadelphia is deeper (even with injuries).

Alright. 9,972 seconds before the puck drops, but who's counting?



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