voline
said:
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... Walt, if he can play, I think they should keep Lilja. He was paired with Lidstrom on the top penalty killing unit until his injury. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... I think Kindl has showed enough where he'll get ice time over Lebda and Meech for sure -- he definitely still needs to adjust to the Wings' system, but he's done enough where he won't need 2/3 years of being Meech and Lebda are only getting those minutes because of injury. They've been playing pretty well, but the only special teams either of them see is powerplay when there's absolutely no one else available. Lilja, Lebda, and Meech (RFA) are all free agents after this season. I think they'll only keep one, and depending on how Lilja progresses, if healthy it will certainly be him. There's a lack of penalty killing defensemen on the roster currently. Lidstrom and Stuart are top notch, and Ericsson is learning, but Lilja is right up there with the best of them for blocking shots and clearing the front of the net. I think next season we're looking at at much stronger defense. Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall and Stuart are the locks. Ericsson is probably the safest bet for #5, and Lilja and Kindl can rotate the #6 depending on need. There's a good chance neither Lebda or Meech are brought back... if Lilja's healthy. A big if, for sure. If I had to pick one, right now I'd pick Lebda. But Meech has been okay and he might stick around because he's younger -- Detroit doesn't usually let restricted free agents go for nothing. EDIT: On second thought, judging by how this season has gone -- Detroit will probably carry eight defensemen next season. I'd say Meech will for sure come back as the #7/8, while Lebda might cash in (relatively speaking) at $1-$2 million to be a #4/#5 defenseman on a worse team, provided the team brings Lilja back. Lilja/Kindl rotate, and Meech only comes in for injury. The benefit to that is with Kindl in the NHL, there's no clear AHL guy "ready" to come up. Kolosov is close (also a free agent at the end of the year) but Pyett, Piche, Ehrhardt, etc., still need more time. Two potential Griffins rookies in Brendan Smith and Brian Lashoff, as well, could be in the mix but it's not a great idea to count on a professional rookie to fill in for injuries. |
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Brian Haining
said:
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... Coming from Scotand, I rely almost exclusiy on internet and espn america for NHL coverage. On the whole it's very good. However loving everything Detroit I find your prospects articles here and wingingitin motown fasinating reading. Keep up the good work. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... That's awesome, Brian! Thanks for dropping me a line -- makes me feel like I'm actually useful. Like I said in the post above this one, I can't imagine what it would be like following the Wings from another country. That's dedication, I dig it. |
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Joe L
said:
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... Love the list Kyle, and I couldn't agree more that this is the most promising collection of prospects Detroit has had in a while. Can't wait to see Tatar in a Wings uniform! |
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Keith B
said:
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... AWESOME!!! Thanks so much for doing this Kyle. Couple of questions... How is Tatar the youngest player in the AHL when there are younger guys in the NHL? Is Tatar NHL ready? Could he be a late winter call-up/Leino replacement? Should he start on the Wings next year (like Abdelkader/Leino this year)? Could Smith make the Wings today? Could he be Detroit's 7th/8th D for the playoffs (when Wisconsin's season ends)? Are he and Kindl expected to start in the NHL next year? Is Larsson really 2 years away and McCollum 4 years away? Or are they both waiting on Ozzie? Could Larsson come up next year if Ozzie retires or does he need another year? Ferraro put up amazing stats last year but should he really not move down from his former spot? Regarding Nyquist, would the Wings pull a player early from college to keep him in the AHL or would they only call him up if he's valuable to the Wings? You say Nestrasil is the rare Wing with size and skill but D. Axelsson is the same size 6'2 as Nestrasil. Either case, it's nice to finally see some forward prospects with size. It seems our biggest players are always D or goalies. Is it normal for a player like Almqvist to jump from J20 to SEL? It seems like a major jump. Often people mention he's too small for the NHL weighing around 170 pounds but how big is Rafalski? He can't weight more then 170. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... Yes, questions! Love it. - Tatar is the youngest because if you're North American, you have to play junior hockey if you're under 20. The players younger than him in the NHL could not play in the AHL; they would need to be sent back to the OHL. Even guys who stuck around all last year like Stamkos, Bogosian, Doughty, etc., could not play in the AHL until next season. Tatar only has to compete with other European born players, of which he's the youngest. - NHL ready is such an ambiguous phrase. I think there's "NHL ready" and "Detroit ready." Other teams might have seen Tatar's AHL success and thought "man, we should just give him a shot," but Detroit is always careful to not rush a player if they're not ready. I think given Tatar's slow start, it wouldnt' be great for him to come up the second half of the season. I think he could produce, but for the long run it would be better to give him a really long look next year. It might be slim for next year, but I wouldn't be shocked if he made it. Either way, he'll get some injury time. - I think Smith probably could make the Wings, but I don't think the Wings need him to. He is an elite talent, but he needs to learn the ins and outs of the defensive game better. People thought Kindl could play in the NHL at 19 (even the Wings said he almost made the team) but here is is at 22 still in the AHL. I could see something similar for Smith, though I think Smith has the better offensive game, so maybe that'll help. - Larsson could probably do something similar to what Howard's doing in the NHL, but he's just not needed to. I think he's waiting on Osgood, which will most likely be after next year. If everything works out, Howard gets the reigns, or the two split, and we see what happens. Who knows if Detroit gets cold feet on Howard before then. But McCollum is the most promising, so Detroit will give him every AHL season they possibly can, the same way they did with Howard. - I didn't move Ferraro down for a couple reasons. I think he is a legitimate first round talent, and I think he is the "line" between Detroit's bluechip talent, and the rest of it. The top seven are really Detroit's most valuable, the guys who can make the biggest impact. Right after him is Emmerton, who's very good but not spectacular. Best case scenario is he's a 3rd line center, maybe 2nd. There are some guys lower with a lot of talent, like Axelsson, Mursak, and Nestrasil, but they've showed less of it, to me they're less likely to reach that level. Ferraro to me is a clear goalscorer and a great hard-working player. I really don't see him becoming anything less than an NHL player, with the potential to be a 25-30 goal scorer. Also, he's hurt, and it's his knee. So much of his game comes from his speed, so despite disappointing stats, it's hard to say he's playing bad when his #1 weapon is sidelined. That said, he's under the microscope for when he gets healthy -- he needs to be Red Deer's go to. - Nyquist is probably AHL bound regardless of when he comes out. It's tough for anyone to jump to the NHL, but with college players you really see even the best and brightest hit a wall after 30-40 games, the average length of a college season. A year or two in the AHL would help him adjust to the rigors and physicality of a longer season. - Dick doesn't play very big, from what I've seen Nestrasil is more physical. But either way, when you look at the first half of the list, the only other player that stands over 6'1 is Joakim Andersson, and he's more of a checker. Guys who can skate and have size and skill are the rarest of rare -- and when they do all of that well, they go earlier in the draft than Detroit gets to pick. That's why Detroit grabbed Nestrasil when he dropped (rated 2nd round by most, Detroit had him 1st round and got him in the 3rd), and take these types of players from strange locations (Axelsson was in 2nd-tier Sweden, rare for prospects of his caliber). You can also look at a guy like Julien Cayer, who played in upstate New York in what is basically really good high school hockey. He hasn't panned out, but they look at those players for guys with those skills. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... Regarding Almqvist.. It's somewhat normal, not for players like him though. He's 18. Generally, with the exception of the elite 1st/2nd round picks, many spend their 18 year old season in the Swedish juniors, and then get a try at professional hockey around 19. For some, they can stick as a regular in the SEL then, but they play very little. Many get loaned to teams in SWE-2 or sometimes lower (almost every Swedish Wing prospect in recent history has done this) for a year, so they get used to the physical play without the extremely high level of talent. Almqvist was supposed to go to a team called IF Troja/Ljungby, but has so far had too much of an impact to be sent down. It's very common for Swedish defensemen to put up really low numbers for whatever reason, probably a little to do with the bigger ice, a little to do with Swedish coaching (defensive hockey). David Rundblad, a first round pick last year described as a puck-mover, has not scored in 90 career SEL games. Tim Erixon has two in 45 games last year, described as one of the best offensive defensemen Sweden has produced. Victor Hedman was built as being the best defenseman they've had in years, and he had just 7 among 21 points -- which is among the highest I've ever seen from an 18-year-old. Jonathan Ericsson had ONE career point in 81 SEL games, then came over and had 29 in his first year with Grand Rapids. That's just the nature of it. He had 10 goals in his second year after just 12 in the five seasons he spent developing in Sweden. Based on a full 40-game season Almqvist would have also been on pace for 7 goals and 18 points. Very good for an 18-year-old, especially one who is not a first round pick. Anyone can score two fluke goals though, but what impresses me is being a +6 in 11 games. HV71 actually has three injured defensemen right now, so I'm not sure where Almqvist really sits on the depth chart, but I do think his production will force the club to give him a long look. Regarding weight, Almqvist is actually probably closer to 150. 159 is the highest I've actually seen him listed at, over at EliteProspects which is not the best for height and weight. He's also probably more 5'8 than 5'10 (but so is Rafalski). Rafalski is slight, but he's pretty built and solid on his skates, he doesn't really get tossed around and he's great at getting low and planting himself in front of the net. The lightest player in the league is Steve Sullivan at 161, and there are only 30 players lighter than 178. About half of them are really talented scorers too, so that should be an indication that not everyone can come in and play at 170, but a guy like Almqvist probably will never get any bigger than 180, MAYBE 185. http://www.nhl.com/ice/app?service=page&page=playerstats&fetchKey=20102ALLSASAll&viewName=bios&sort=player.weight&pg=26 Detroit drafted him because of his skill and just hoped he would get bigger. They did the same thing with Datsyuk, who was listed at 5'9, 160 when Detroit picked him up. He currently plays at 5'11, 194, and it took him quite a while to get to be that big. To actually answer your question, it's a big jump for him. Even people who knew of him didn't think he could take the SEL, but so far he has proven them wrong. But not only to make it, but to produce, is something the Wings haven't seen since Kronwall. I put him really high in the rankings, but we'll see what he does in the second half. If he can stick in the SEL, I think I was right to put him there. If he gets sent down to SWE-2 but still produces -- we've still got a very good prospect on our hands. |
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waltdetroit
said:
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... This applies to Tatar, Nyquist, Almquist, & almost all of the prospects under 22: For me "NHL Ready" means the quickness & speed of skating, strength on the puck, and defensive awareness are at a high level. Most 19 year olds cannot match the physical strength and stamina of a 25 year old 3rd year pro. The fore mentioned 3 all possess amazing hockey sense bu just need their bodies to mature. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... I agree. That's why I always waver when people ask "is so and so ready for the NHL?" On a lot of teams, players like Tatar and maybe Nyquist would be getting chances to earn a full time role this year or next. But those teams run the risk of the player being shut down or worn out physically, resulting in a lack of production, leading to a lack of confidence. No better way to break a prospect than to give him tons of ice time at 19 when he's not ready. When Tatar makes the NHL it's because he's physically ready to handle it, and he's ready for a regular spot on Detroit's 2nd line. Whether that's next year or three years from now I don't really care -- I know he'll get to that point eventually. It's not just weight -- Darren Helm plays pretty light. Both he and Abdelkader will still fill out. But each of them are ready to handle 12-18 minutes a night, as they play very physically and they're ready for the grind of the season. Tatar plays a skilled game, who knows what would happen if he's taking big hits every night and starts shying away from traffic. Just needs to get used to that at the AHL level, before he can try it at the NHL level. |
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Joe L
said:
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... Is Coetzee ranked 18th simply because Detroit's system is so deep, because he has no experience above juniors, or some other reason entirely? My one nitpick is that I thought he would be higher up, especially since you mentioned his impressive production so far. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... I don't generally like to put a guy all the way up top with one good season. The Wings system is deep, and they've had a ton of high junior scorers who have gone on to do nothing in the pro ranks. Even Maltby scored 50 goals in the OHL. Coetzee was not a big producer among his peers at prospect camp, and he really got mixed reviews all throughout last season when it was only Ferraro tearing it up. Also, even though he was eligible for the last draft, he's a late '90, so his production isn't quite as impressive as it would be for a '91 to put up those points. This season, he's on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who is pretty much a lock to go top five in next year's draft, so that's also helping him tear it up. So there's a couple reasons. It's always good to keep the doubts in mind, but for sure I'm really impressed with the way he's stepped up without Ferraro. I caught him in one game and I was pretty surprised that he wasn't drafted, but he isn't quite an elite talent. Next season is big for him, because his late 90 birthday means he can play in the AHL or stay for an overage season in the WHL. He'll likely tear the WHL apart, so if he can step in and contribute in the AHL -- expect him to rise up this list fast. |
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Keith B
said:
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... Could you maybe add to the depth chart height and weight (or an approximation) next time so I can know that Almqvist isn't 170 pounds like he's listed as? Also, could you maybe do a depth chart of the Wings 5 years from now? I am working on one right now and wanted to see what you thought of it. Thanks so much for doing this Kyle. I love this site and I love the fact that you take the time to 1. write up these posts and 2. answer our questions. |
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Keith B
said:
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... Considering that both Filppula and Datysuk both are UFA in 4 years I realized doing a depth chart is impossible. I thought maybe instead of a depth chart listing which players that should be on the Wings in 5 years would make more sense. Forwards: Datsyuk (35) UFA in 2014 Zetterberg (33) Franzen (34) Filppula (30) UFA in 2013 Abdelkader (27) RFA in 2010! Helm (27) RFA in 2010! Ritola (27) Emmerton (26) RFA in 2011 Tatar (24) Nyquist (25) Ferraro (23) Still in AHL? Mursak (26) J. Andersson (25) Nestrasil (23) Still in AHL? Defenseman: Kronwall (33) UFA in 2012 Stuart (34) UFA in 2012 Ericsson (30) UFA in 2011 Kindl (27) RFA in 2010! Smith (25) Nicastro (24) Still in AHL? Almqvist (23) Still in AHL? Lashoff (24) Pyett (26) ? Goalies: Howard (30) UFA in 2011 McCollum (25) Larsson (2  RFA in 2010! Just to clear up any confusion… next to all the players that are not in the AHL or not an overage player in major juniors (Lashoff) I marked that they still might be in the AHL. Because Detroit likes to keep players in GR for at least 3 years all players that won’t be in GR next year might still be in GR in 5 years. Looking at the list of potential players I realize a couple of things. First off, Detroit has a number of FA (RFA and UFA) coming up in 2010 and 2011. This list includes: Holmstrom, Drapper, Bertuzzi, Williams, Maltby, Abdelkader, Leino, Helm, Eaves, May, Miller, Newbury, Emmerton, Hudler, Lidstrom, Lilja, Ericsson, Lebda, Meech, Janik, Kindl, Osgood, Howard, and Larsson. WOW! Obviously, some of these guys will retire (Holmstom, Drapper, Maltby, May, Lilja, Osgood), some will not be invited back (Williams?, Leino?, Newbury, Lebda, Meech, Janik). With so much talent coming up will Detroit needs to decide which RFA they need to sign and which ones they will only keep at the right price. The second thing I notice is that even if Detroit decides to re-sign a number of the veterans, there will be a lot of call ups from GR in the next 2 to 3 years. Holland and Co are going to need to decide soon which way Detroit is headed. Are they going to re-sign some of their bigger FAs like Filppula (2013), Rafalski (2012), Stuart (2012), Kronwall (2012), Ericsson (2011) and Howard (2011) or to go with a major youth movement. Grand Rapids has the resources to let the majority of the older players go (and sign some FA along the way) and if Holland re-signs everyone then there will be a surplus of NHL ready talent at all 3 spots (goalies, defenseman, and forwards). The D has to be the thinnest of the 3 spots (since having 3 NHL ready goalies is amazing!) especially considering every single starter at that spot could be gone in 5 years. Lidstrom’s contract ends after this season and probably will be retired before the 14/15 season even if he is re-signed. Rafalski will mostly likely walk as a 38 year old FA in 2012 unless he takes a major pay cut. Stuart will be 34 and might be a candidate to re-sign to a 2-3 year but could easily leave Detroit if he wants a longer deal or if he wants to win one last cup. While Detroit shouldn’t collapse and be a horrible team, having a team with 50% turnover makes it impossible to be in the Cup chase. I think the strength of GR and Babcock’s coaching will keep Detroit as a playoff contender but honestly expecting them to compete is unrealistic in my mind (please feel free to prove me wrong here). Kronwall will be 33 in 2012 and should be looking for 1 last big contract and could very easily find it elsewhere. I love Kronwall but he isn’t worth #1 money (which he might get on the FA market) and his injury risk should make him too expensive for a team not in the Stanley Cup chase (see above). Ericsson will be in his prime when he hits the market in 2011 as a 27 year old. He should be a #1 D by then. Hopefully he will be locked in to a long term deal by then but if not he could be the #1 FA in the county that offseason. With Kindl needing an NHL contract after this season I have a hard time seeing Detroit sign Lebda, Meech, or Janik to any new contract. Maybe with Meech being a RFA Detroit might keep him as a really cheap #7 (and a short term contract) but with Smith knocking on the door, I don’t think it makes sense to sign more than Meech. Lilja will never play again and if he does he shouldn’t play next year. That means that Detroit could possibly start 2014 without any of this year’s starters! I think the sheer number of players that might leave Detroit is terrifying. Surely, not all of them will leave. Independent of the FAs the numerous players that will retire in the next 5 years could completely drain Detroit’s prospect depth. But it would be fun having a Detroit team that young and talented. It would be something I’ve never seen before. |
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KyleKujawa
said:
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... I could probably whip up some kind of roster/depth chart for the "Handy Links" section on top. Figure something like that with all the vitals would be pretty "handy" after all. Thing with weights those is there's really no way to tell what's real and what's inflated. I tend to go by what the player's team lists them at, as they update at least once a year. Sites like EliteProspects can go years without updating and I'm pretty sure hockeyDB just guesses from time to time. I just assume from the pictures and video of Almqvist that there's no way he's 170, and people who have seen him live sometimes doubt he's 150. Awesome job on that depth chart. I really like reading stuff like that since, like we've gone over, Detroit's never really had this kind of depth before. It's tough to guess how they'll be able to manage it, with waivers coming into play after three years of AHL action, Detroit having so many players under lifetime contracts, European players running out of patience when they could be stars in their own countries/KHL, and Detroit continuing to draft well and stock the cupboards. It seems for the immediate future that the next wave will not come until Draper/Maltby/Homer/Lidstrom hang them up, which I'd guess will be 3-4 years for all of them. But Detroit does have a lot of "replaceable" types this season in Bert, Williams, Eaves, and Miller (the latter two are making a case to stay on long-term, but just based on the fact that one was a buyout and one was a waiver claim says it wouldn't be awful if Detroit lost either, they seem to be able to pick a talented player when given a long list of unwanted ones). These types of guys could get replaced with the Mursaks, Emmertons, and Ritolas next season if Detroit wanted to go in that direction, otherwise they might need to start trading some of those players so they don't just lose them (seems to be a rumor going around that Ritola will not stand for another year in the AHL). For the record, Kindl signed a contract in the pre-season. He's on a one-way deal starting in the 2010-11 season and lasting for three seasons. Detroit's probably going to have a logjam in the AHL next season, and even worse the season after if they don't do anything about it. Really need to assess the upcoming prospect RFAs (Ritola, Kolosov, Oulahen, McGrath, even Meech really) because you can't keep giving these guys one-year contracts and letting them fill GR spots that will be in high demand next season. Sure, you need some of the McGrath types to be veterans and leaders in GR, but how long are they going to keep this guy there when there are tons of teams who have fourth liners that don't hold a candle to his hockey sense and skill? I always look forward to the contract side of things. I'm hoping after the New Year some time I can do a "six month outlook" on Detroit's cap situation for next season, maybe touching on some of the stuff you brought up in that comment. This season is the priority obviously, but I think it would be interesting to outline how the team's shaping up for next year and getting fans to really think about who among the free agents is playing their way onto next year's roster. |
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Robbie25Jefferson
said:
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... Different people in all countries receive the mortgage loans in different banks, just because this is easy. |
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