About time, right?

BDS has moved and changed and completely revamped and shuffled, so I figure there are some new readers out there who might not understand this. A brief introduction -- something I love to do, and part of the reason I started this blog (felt prospect info was too scattered) is track the Wings' prospects. It's a whole element of hockey that makes the game that much more fascinating to me. I love the Wings and the NHL, sure, but just knowing there's this whole other world out there -- the world of the AHL, ECHL, OHL, WHL, QMJHL, NCAA, and an infinite combination of *HL out there, is just the best thing ever for me. When there's no NHL for me, I like to read up (and watch, when I can) players that Detroit has drafted -- because I want a head start on knowing these players if and when they eventually make the Red Wings. Most of you are probably aware that I write a weekly update on prospects for Winging it in Motown, and I hope that has helped you to take an interest in prospects as well, because I'm aware it's not everyone's favorite thing.

Something I like to do here is take a few hours and rank all of Detroit's prospects in order of how I value them. It's nothing concrete, and I guarantee the list would be different every week if I ranked them weekly, but I like doing it for a couple reasons. First, I think it's a great way to pump out the most valuable information about a prospect in a paragraph or so -- for those out there who'd like to follow, but don't need a week-to-week update on how many points this guy and that guy had. Secondly, I like to make these lists and review them years later to see just how good of a judge the wannabe-scout in me is at assessing talent. Trust me, before I had a blog I had lists saved on my hard drive of me just doing this for my own amusement. Sad, right?

The last edition of Prospect Rankings was the pre-season edition I did in August. You can click that fine-lookin' red text to get to those, where you'll find the archive of rankings I did on the old page. If you're into this, I'd at least recommend looking at the pre-season ones to get a good sense of who's really going above and beyond and who isn't.

Generally I like to break this up as it's a lot of reading and it probably isn't too fun to go through in one sitting. As it happens, Detroit has 38 prospects currently, so what better way to break it up than in sections of 19. The perfect number. And to make it even more of a journey, we're starting at #19 and working our way up to the best prospect. Think you know who it is? Here's a hint. It was Justin Abdelkader last time around, but I've officially graduated him as he is a full-time NHL player currently, so it's a player who hasn't been at #1 before. On that note, Abdelkader is removed, and Nils Backstrom (the 39th and last ranked player last time around) was outright released, so those are the two missing from last time. New is Willie Coetzee, who signed just weeks after I put out that last edition.

To preface these rankings, I have to say: this is the best system Detroit has had since I've started following prospects (early '00s). Detroit didn't always have an AHL team, and when they did they didn't make this kind of use of it. Right now, Grand Rapids is the only road to Detroit, so many top prospects are there currently. It's never had more prospects than it does right now, so there's no precedence for what's going to happen to guys if they turn 23, 24, 25, and Detroit just has no room for them. They might let some go, might lose a few to waivers (Kyle Quincey), might move some in trades. But many of the top guys have been in the system since 2004, 2005ish, and most have been consistently getting better. However, Detroit just keeps pumping in more and more talent. You'd think a team with five rookies would be hurting depth-wise, but things have never looked better. You'll see what I mean when you see where certain players are ranked.

Enough intro, here we go.

19. Brent Raedeke (+7) | Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL) ... Center ... Age: 19
38 GP | 17G 13A, 30PTS | +4, 54 PIM
Wrapping up the top half (or starting, in this case) of the list is another Detroit free agent find in Raedeke. Like Coetzee, a hot start saw him on the WHL All-Star team, but he did not gather an invite to Canada's WJC team despite being one of the most impressive in the game I saw. Raedeke has blazing speed, he's smart with the puck, he's aggressive and gritty, and he's very proficient in his own zone. His production has tapered off slightly, but he still leads Edmonton in scoring as the team's alternate captain. On pace to crush career highs in all offensive categories, Raedeke should turn pro after this season as Detroit looks to explore whether or not they've made a worthwhile investment on so many free agent finds.

18. Willie Coetzee (NR) | Red Deer Rebels (WHL) ... Right Wing ... Age: 19
35 GP | 16G 31A, 47PTS | +8, 12 PIM
Detroit's newest prospect has been the most productive -- no Detroit prospect has more points than Coetzee. In fact, only seven players in the entire WHL have more points than Coetzee. Undrafted in June, Coetzee earned a contract from the Red Wings after an impressive prospects camp. Coetzee was Landon Ferraro's linemate in Red Deer last season, and with Ferraro in and out with injuries, he's been the Rebels' top gun this season. Coetzee is speedy, aggressive, and has a cannon of a shot -- a recipe for success in the WHL. He even had a (long) shot at Canada's WJC roster when he was named to the WHL All-Star team (typically, a way Canada selects players to attend the main WJC camp) against the Russian selects. Coetzee scored a nice goal in that game, but did not make Canada's WJC team. That shouldn't be taken as a slight at all, though. It's virtually impossible for players drafted outside of the top two rounds to be selected, let alone players passed over in seven rounds.

17. Logan Pyett (+10) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) ... Defense ... Age: 21
31 GP | 4G 9A, 13PTS | +8, 10 PIM
Pyett has enjoyed a resurgence in Grand Rapids this season, and his +10 jump represents one of the highest on this list. Pyett was frequently a healthy scratch last season and was out of the lineup entirely when Brian Lashoff came rolling through on his successful amateur tryout late in the season and into the playoffs. For this reason, I expected that Pyett's roster spot would be challenged by rookies Sebastien Piche and Travis Ehrhardt. Pyett has proved me wrong though, already topping the offensive totals he put up last season and proving himself as a legitimate top five defenseman on the team. He looks much more comfortable on the ice this season than he did at this point last year. He rushes the puck again and is not afraid to take risks. It's definitely paying off for him, as he appears to be back in the mix with Detroit's most relevant prospects.

16. Mattias Ritola (-2) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), Detroit Red Wings (NHL) ... Right Wing ... Age: 22
31 GP | 7G 7A, 14PTS | -4, 20 PIM
When you picture Ritola as the player seen in the pre-season, circa September 2009, #16 as a ranking is insulting -- that Ritola looked NHL ready. That Ritola was a little different than the one who has showed up for the Griffins so far. He hasn't been poor, and his production isn't too low, but Ritola has been given tremendous opportunity and hasn't shined the way I hoped. He's been on the top line for most of the season, along with the top powerplay, and I don't think his numbers reflect that. Curt Fraser does role lines, so it's not like Ritola is playing that much more than everyone else, but he does frequently play with the veteran players like Jeremy Williams and Michael Nylander. Detroit has a decision to make on Ritola, as he will need to clear waivers to play in the AHL next season. He has a chance to make that decision easier -- as well as prove me dead wrong on this ranking -- as he was just called up to Detroit today.

15. Brian Lashoff (-3) | Kingston Frontenacs (OHL), United States U20 (WJC) ... Defense ... Age: 19
33 GP | 4G 10A, 14PTS | +1, 51PIM
Lashoff is an interesting case: he was actually one of the most impressive Griffins last season. This came of a small sample size, as he only joined the team on a tryout after his OHL season ended. He is too young to play in the AHL this season. So it's back to the OHL, where he is the Frontenacs' captain and top blueliner. Playing alongside (when healthy) potential 2010 top five pick Erik Gudbranson, Lashoff has been one of the most consistent blueliners in the OHL. His play has not gone unnoticed, as he is among the USA's top eight defensemen for the upcoming WJC, even though he was not on the initial roster of 20 defensemen. Despite offensive production not quite at the level expected, Lashoff continues to give Detroit excellent value as the highest ranked player not drafted.

14. Adam Almqvist (+19) | HV71 Jonkoping J20 (J20), Sweden Jr. A (WJAC), HV71 (SEL) ... Defense ... Age: 18
[J20] 15 GP | 5G 29A, 34PTS | 14 PIM [WJAC] 4 GP | 2G 2A, 4PTS [SEL] 11 GP | 2G 3A, 5PTS | +6, 4 PIM
I'm going all out here -- Almqvist has been impressive enough to work his way this high. Detroit's 7th round pick, drafted for his great hockey sense, has been the real deal so far, the biggest leaper in all of the prospect rankings. Impressive are his numbers at the J20 level -- which led the league during his time there (and for a period of time after he left the league), and the team was undefeated with Almqvist in the lineup. Production at that level historically hasn't led to much success in the NHL, let alone the SEL. Almqvist went on to a successful Junior A Challenge, with two goals on a weak Swedish team. After that tournament, Almqvist was given a trial in the SEL, before he was supposed to be sent to SWE-2 -- and this is where my justification to his ranking comes from. Almqvist's "few game" trial has been stretched into a month-long stretch, where he's excelled. He's put up some points, and by all accounts does not look out of place. I admit this is a generous ranking, but for now I'm sticking by it. To be certain, Almqvist is still very tiny -- too small to play in the NHL. He will need to work his physical game into overdrive to continue to advance up the ladder, points will only take him so far.

13. Max Nicastro (+4) | Boston University Terriers (HE), United States U20 (WJC) ... Defense ... Age: 19
16 GP | 1G 5A, 6PTS | 16 PIM
After spending the last two seasons in the USHL, it was time for a new challenge this season for Nicastro. Challenge being the word of choice there -- Nicastro faced the task of establishing himself an identity on a blueline loaded with NHL draft picks like himself. To make it even harder, this is a team coming off a National Championship. To the surprise of few, Nicastro hasn't missed a beat winning a regular spot and even finding a way to chip in some offense. Nicastro was excellent during his time in the USHL, but both years he was there, critics said he benefited from playing with a "better" prospect -- the first year being Michigan-native Will Weber, and last year first round pick John Moore, both now property of Columbus. In an ironic and sweet twist, after being left off the preliminary roster of nearly 20 defenseman, Nicastro now finds himself among the final group of eight for the USA WJC team. In the last group of cuts? John Moore. Bam. Nicastro is joined by fellow prospect Brian Lashoff (#15) and there is one more cut to be made for the defensive corps. One of the two is guaranteed to be on the team, with a good chance of them both making it.

12. Andrej Nestrasil (+1) | Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL), Czech Republic U20 (WJC) ... Right Wing ... Age: 18
33 GP | 12G 25A, 37PTS | +0, 24 PIM
Nestrasil is the "free" pick Detroit got from swapping down from Tampa Bay for swapping pick #29 to #32. Not a bad pick either, considering Detroit believed he had first round talent. Nestrasil is a rare breed in Detroit's system -- a skilled player with some size. After a productive rookie season, most expected Nestrasil should be able to become a scoring leader on Victoriaville, and he's done just that. Nestrasil is top 20 in QMJHL scoring and has led Victoriaville in scoring for much of the season. Nestrasil has top-notch offensive skill, and with better skating could be considered a top prospect. To a certain degree skating can be taught (leg strength) so that will be Nestrasil's challenge in his last two seasons of junior. Nestrasil's play has earned him a spot at the Czech Republic's WJC camp, where he will battle for a roster spot among 16 other forwards.

11. Dick Axelsson (-5) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), Farjestads BK (SEL) ... Left Wing ... Age: 22
17 GP | 2G 3A, 5 PTS | +1, 6 PIM
I've been excited for few prospects more than Dick Axelsson, who, despite issues with work ethic haunting him in the past, is the most productive prospect Detroit has had in Sweden since Henrik Zetterberg. Axelsson had a rough start to the season, hurting his knee in prospect's camp and being held out of Detroit's main camp. He started the season on Grand Rapids' top line, scoring a goal in his first game, but managing only one more since that point. Through sickness, injury, and, true, work ethic, Axelsson slipped down the depth chart and was frequently scratched in favor of Griffins' goon Paul Crosty. Axelsson expressed a desire in November to move back to Farjestad, saying he was homesick. Detroit wished Axelsson to stay, but just last week Axelsson informed the team that he'd be spending Christmas break training with Farjestad. It's not official, but it is likely that Axelsson will not return. On one hand, it's tough to respect his decision when Detroit asked him to stay. On the other hand, not everyone can tolerate moving from the SEL to the AHL, where buildings can look 1/3 full. Unlike Johan Ryno, another prospect who disobeyed Detroit and left for Sweden, Axelsson gave the AHL a 30 game shot. I do believe his decision will hurt his development, but Axelsson will be able to play more in the SEL. He does have one more year on his contract, and given his obvious talent level, this is not the end of the world as long as he gives Grand Rapids another shot next season.

10. Joakim Andersson (-2) | Frolunda Indians (SEL) ... Center ... Age: 20
31 GP | 3G 8A, 11PTS | +7, 28 PIM
I still think it's a shame Andersson didn't turn pro after last season's impressive late season tryout with Grand Rapids, but Andersson is certainly still high on the radar. For players of his age, it's very hard to earn regular minutes, and Andersson is still reprising his role as the 4th line shutdown center. He started the season on a higher line which is where most of his current points came from, but the points stopped as Frolunda slowly gained all their players back and Andersson fell down the depth chart. I don't see much reason that Andersson should stay in Sweden beyond this year, so expect a contract from Detroit in the offseason -- it's time he tried North America.

9. Jan Mursak (+12) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) ... Right Wing ... Age: 21
31 GP | 11G 8A, 19PTS | +11, 12 PIM
Mursak's a great example of patience in prospects, once top five, most recently out of the top 20, now top ten again. This doesn't necessarily mean I have no patience (mostly true), just that it's never a good time to write off a prospect completely. However, I feel it would have been ill-advised to just "assume" a scorer with a two-goal season is going to turn it around and leave him in the top ten, but he probably shouldn't have been 21. Mursak worked hard in the offseason to make sure he would earn more ice time this year. He started the season in an energy role, completely reforming his game from when I viewed him as a "top six or bust" early in his career. Once Tomas Tatar caught fire, Mursak's play followed. He now gives Detroit an excellent professional prospect. Labeled as very weak and one-dimensional when drafted, Mursak is slowly gaining strength. He is useful on the penalty kill, and also throws his weight around. Elements of the old Mursak still remain -- many of his 11 goals have been of the "snipe" variety, and his hands still show flashes of the ones I once compared to Pavel Datsyuk's.

8. Cory Emmerton (+1) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) ... Center ... Age: 21
30GP | 5G 8A, 13PTS | +5, 6 PIM
There are few prospects Detroit publically raves about more than Emmerton. Now in his second professional year, with Grand Rapids' three graduations from last season up front, Emmerton has seen a greatly increased role that has seen him kill penalties with more regularity, as his two-way play has increased tenfold since his junior days. Still a gifted playmaker, Emmerton is on the powerplay from time to time and would really move himself up on the depth chart if he produced more offense in the second half of the season (the way he did last year). Emmerton is a smart player who is developing exactly as Detroit was hoping he would -- it's no wonder they view him as a future Red Wing.

7. Landon Ferraro (-) | Red Deer Rebels (WHL) ... Center ... Age: 18
17GP | 4G 8A, 12 PTS | -7, 19 PIM
Although Tatar is becoming "the" pick of the 2009 draft, it was Ferraro that was Detroit's semi-first rounder (2nd pick of the 2nd round). Ferraro's had a rough start to his life in the Red Wings' system. Ferraro has gone down with not one, but two knee injuries, one of which he received treatment for in Detroit. In between injuries, he got into some game action with Red Deer, but was not completely healthy so his game suffered. Clearly, in Detroit's system there's no need for Ferraro to make an immediate impact in the NHL -- getting him healthy and ready to play with no limitations is priority number one. Detroit has had too many prospects have promising careers cut short by injuries (Igor Grigorenko comes to mind, but in this case, look no further than Ferraro's coach, Jesse Wallin). Ferraro's injury is not as serious as the likes of those two (who were both in car accidents), but it's still important to make sure it's treated properly. Ferraro is still on the shelf, but isn't expected to be out very long.

6. Gustav Nyquist (+5) | Maine Black Bears (HE) ... Left Wing/Center ... Age: 20
17GP | 11G 14A, 25PTS | 10 PIM
Nyquist was always a prospect I wanted to rank higher, and now I feel confident in doing so because he's proving his freshman year at Maine was no fluke. The problem with putting Nyquist this high last year (in my mind) is the same problem that occurs with most ridiculously high scoring players on bad teams. Are they producing because they have a very high level of talent, or because they're only good compared to the rest of the team? Given that Nyquist led Maine in scoring by a wide margin last season, and this season is 7th in the entire nation, it's becoming increasingly clear that Nyquist is the real deal. Maine is a much better club this year, currently third in the Hockey East, and Nyquist is a big reason why. There's been talk that Nyquist could turn pro after this season, his sophomore year, but Detroit hasn't pulled out a player that early in recent memory. No guarantees, but certainly a good chance Nyquist turns pro after this season.

5. Daniel Larsson (-2) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) ... Goaltender ... Age: 23
18 GP | 11-6-1 | 2.59, .913%, 1 SO
Despite a virtual split in ice time, Larsson has emerged now as the Griffins' better goalie. Larsson actually started off slowly after being lit up in each of his first two starts, but has chipped away at his then skyrocketed numbers and now sits with statistics more expected from someone who is capable of being an elite goaltender. Larsson is working this season on being more consistent night in and night out -- he hit a bit of a wall last season and lost a lot of playing time to Jimmy Howard down the stretch. While Howard cuts his teeth in the NHL, Larsson is poised to be Grand Rapids' starting goalie in the playoffs, and, in an ideal world, steps in within two years as the backup goalie as Howard assumes the starting role. Whether that actually occurs is definitely up in the air, but for now Larsson is a valuable asset to Detroit who might get a one or two game NHL tryout later in the season, should Detroit be secure enough in the standings to test him.

4. Thomas McCollum (+1) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) ... Goaltender ... Age: 20
15 GP | 7-6-0 | 2.89, .894%
McCollum jumps Larsson in these rankings, which is not necessarily an indicator of performance. So far, Larsson has outperformed McCollum fairly significantly in statistical categories, but McCollum's numbers are more than respectable for a 20-year-old netminder and there are no doubts that he is on his way to becoming a very competent AHL goalie. Despite being the youngest of Detroit's goaltending prospects, McCollum has more of the "tools" you look for in an NHL starter. His glove hand is lightning quick, he plays more of the modern butterfly/hybrid style, and he has that ideal size around 6'2. He has had his off nights, as is to be expected from a rookie, but the thought of where he will be in three or four years is very exciting.

3. Brendan Smith (+1) | Wisconsin Badgers (WCHA) ... Defense ... Age: 20
17 GP | 8G 18A, 26 PTS | 26 PIM
Smith is putting on a show in college hockey right now, virtually guaranteeing that he's going to earn a contract from Detroit in April. After being scratched for the second game of the season, Smith has gone on a tear and leads all the nation's defensemen in scoring. He's also considered the front runner for the Hobey Baker, the award for the top player in college hockey, never before won by a Red Wings' prospect. Detroit's first round pick in 2007 is the clear leader on a blueline stacked with high NHL draft picks, on a Badger team that's poised to make a long run towards the Frozen Four (conveniently located in Detroit, MI). A junior, Smith does not need to sign after this season, but likely will as is the case with most top prospects. Smith's offensive explosiveness has not come at the expense of his defensive game, head coach Mike Eaves (father to Patrick Eaves) keeps every player accountable and Smith's game is ever-improving.

2. Jakub Kindl (-) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), Detroit Red Wings (NHL) ... Defense ... Age: 22
[AHL] 27 GP | 1G 13A, 14PTS | +1, 22 PIM [NHL] 2 GP | 0G 0A, 0PTS | -2, 0 PIM
Kindl being passed over for the spot as the number one prospect is more a reflection of Tatar's abilities over Kindl's struggles. In fact, Kindl has been very good this season and made my decision a difficult one. Kindl, who is on a one-way contract starting next season, has become a top pairing defenseman in Grand Rapids and appears for the first time in his professional career to be ready for the next level. After a slow start to his AHL career, this season Kindl is limiting turnovers, improving himself positionally, and embracing his size and physical game. His play saw him earn a two game stint with Detroit. Despite a -2 rating, drew rave reviews from most, leaving a few to wonder if Kindl might pull a Jonathan Ericsson and work his way into Detroit's playoff lineup when that time comes.

1.Tomas Tatar (+9) | Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), Slovakia U20 (WJC) ... Left Wing ... Age: 19
22 GP | 8G 9A, 17PTS | +11, 6PIM
It's a quick rise to the top, but it's an obvious choice in my mind. Tatar earns that top spot for one reason -- I have no doubts he's going to be a productive player at the NHL level. I don't believe the Wings have had a player of a similar caliber in a few years now, with the potential to put up big numbers in the NHL. Tatar earned a contract with Detroit after an impressive prospects camp and training camp, because Detroit wished to keep him in North America, either in Plymouth (OHL) or Grand Rapids, over the top men's league in Slovakia. After work permit issues kept him out of the first few games, Tatar made his debut with Grand Rapids, but production was low enough to think that Tatar might be sent to the OHL. In mid-November he hit his stride and became a big-time offensive threat in a league where he is the youngest player (just turned 19). Since that point, he's been scoring at roughly point-per-game. He recently left Grand Rapids to join Slovakia for the World Junior Championships, which will wrap up in the first week of January. He starred at the event last year, giving himself some major expectations to live up to this year.